Archive for January, 2010

Potential Turnarounds to Watch?

January 28th, 2010 by John Brasher

It is a well-known fact that when a large, heavily traded company sells off for an extended period, a rebound usually is in the offing. I found a number of such potential candidates on our Real-Time Lists of the highest-returning covered call trades, and will share them with you here.

MOS/POT/AGU - all are testing the 100-day or 200-day (POT) average. POT reports earnings today, AGU on February 9th, MOS in April.

X - Steel has sold off like a runaway freight train. It does not make money, but technically may be ready for a heady (and not long-lasting) turnaround. It next reports earnings in April.

NEM - Newmont is oversold at a 30 RSI and accumulation is turning up. It is hanging on to the 200-day average and testing the 50-week average, but had huge climax volume on this test of major support. NEM reports on 2/25, after February expiration.

Confirmation would make these good for naked puts, also. Since we want to stay diversified, one should write only one of the MOS/POT/AGU group.

I caution that, since we make no wine before its time, confirmation of price recovery is necessary. I may very well play some of these with OTM covered call writes for February, but I want to see some recovery, and the market doldrums are pulling most things down. OTM writes give me low delta and enables a profitable close if the stock snaps back as expected. I can’t say I expect turnarounds in these just yet. We wait for turnaround confirmation in case they want to look for new lows.