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It's
no secret that we at CallWriter are strong proponents
of covered call writing. We know it is possible to make
returns from covered call writing that average 3% to 5%
a month, without even using margin. That's
36% to 60%
a year without even using margin.
We have CallWriter members actually accomplishing these
kinds of returns on a regular basis, some with comparatively
little trading experience when they begin.
But
what you want to know is - HOW do they do it?
That's a good question, and we're going to answer it right
here, right now.
Rule
No. 1 - like Mom always said, do your homework.
Remember
that the covered call candidates on our Real Time
Lists™ of the highest returning calls are
just that - trade candidates.
The lists are automatically generated by our proprietary
Profit Engine™ software and are
presented solely by returns offered. The trade candidates
on our lists have not been evaluated as trades in any
way! You should do the full complement of research on
any one before writing it. Never, ever write a covered
call just because of the return it offers, because that
is just rolling the dice with your money. You will only
get away with blind writing in a good bull market (and
sometimes not even then).
We
show CallWriter members how to do this analysis before
entering a trade. The analysis called for is not cumbersome,
difficult or time-consuming but should be done every time
- no exceptions. So here are some homework
points to consider:
1.
Be very careful with "FDA" stocks.
Pharmaceutical and bio companies regulated by the FDA
frequently are on the list awaiting an FDA approval or
test results on a drug or device being developed. Unless
you can negative this, it may be best to avoid them. The
exception is for larger companies that have many products
on the market, and which will not be gutted by an adverse
announcement about a particular drug or device. On the
other hand, the FDA stocks can provide marvelous returns.
FDA stocks should always be written deeply in
the money - no exceptions.
2.
Pay attention to liquidity issues. It is generally
a good idea to avoid stocks with less than 1,000,000 average
daily volume, since they are too easily manipulated. We
usually avoid call options with less than 1,000 open interest,
since they are not very liquid. Absolutely avoid calls
that have a spread between the bid and asked price of
more than $0.20.
TIP:
Big spreads on the bid/asked prices really pick your
pocket. When you try to buy these calls back (close
to expiration or if the stock drops), the spread
will kill you - for example, the call may be bid at
0.15 but it could cost you 0.45 or more to buy it back!
3.
Check for News. Stocks generally are on our lists
for a reason, and you should look back at news headlines
for a month or so to try to determine what event could
be driving volatility. It is not always possible to find
this, so don’t be too concerned. Be very wary
of a stock that has moved up recently on no news that
you can determine. This could mean that you haven’t
found the news moving the stock, but can also mean that
the stock is being manipulated, or that the market knows
something you don’t.
4.
Look for an earnings report. We generally like
to avoid stocks that will report earnings before call
expiration, because they can tank if the company doesn’t
hit its earnings number – and can tank like Caterpillar
did earlier this year even if it hits its own earnings
prediction but misses the number the market expects (the
so-called “whisper” number). In fact,
stocks frequently go down even when the earnings report
is good, because the stock has already run up in price,
and by the time news comes out most of the people who
want to buy the stock have bought it. They sell when the
news comes out. This is called buying the rumor and selling
the news.
TIP:
If a stock will report earnings before option expiration
and has been moving up on no particular news, this indicates
a run-up based on earnings expectations. Such a stock
should only be written well ITM. In order to write stocks
reporting earnings, it is essential that you look back
over a couple of years of history to see how the stock
reacts to earnings reports. You want to know if the
stock typically runs up on earnings expectations before
the report is issued and if it sells off on the actual
earnings announcement. If the stock tends to sell off,
either write it deep in the money (premium should be
at least 15% of the stock's current price) or pass on
the trade.
CallWriter
teaches other analysis steps, such as evaluating the stock's
charts (technical analysis), but the foregoing list provides
an excellent start.
Rule No. 2 - stick to the safer roads.
If
you are primarily interested (as are we) in safety as
opposed to sheer return, then there are two lists to start
with: the Deep in the Money and
S&P 100 lists.
Please
note that the covered call plays discussed below should
NOT be considered
picks or recommendations of any kind, they are for example
purposes ONLY.
Deep
in the Money List:
Plays on this list are at least 10% in the money (ITM),
so if the stock is $20, the list could not show you any
call with a strike price above $18 ($2.00 - or 10% - below
the stock price). In our experience, our Deep in the Money
lists contain stocks that tend to have low volatility,
meaning less likely to tank on you. Deeply ITM calls as
a general rule provide the lowest return of all calls,
but on the other hand always provide the most protection.
Deep
ITM Examples:
In
March, we wrote a March 25 covered call on Sepracor
when the stock was $28.34 but got a $4.90 premium, which
protected us down to 23.44. Return: 5.5% for a few weeks.
Downside Protection: 17%.
Recently,
NPS Pharmaceuticals was 23.75 on our list and the April
22.50 call was paying a $2.80 premium, which protected
down to 20.95. Return: 6.53% for a few weeks. Downside
Protection: 11.7%.
Recently,
Genta was 10.46 on our list and the May 7.50 call was
paying a $3.80 premium, which protected down to 6.66.
Return: 8.03% for a 51-day trade. Downside Protection:
36.3%.
ITM
calls hedge your risk through the huge premium. However,
traders should not get lazy and fail to do the analysis,
because a stock that has a huge drop can hurt you even
with the large premium.
Still,
iIf you are concerned about the stock dropping while you're
in the trade or uncertain of your ability to do basic
chart analysis, the Deep in the Money List is probably
your best bet.
S&P
100 List:
These stocks tend as a rule to be far less volatile than
others and to move less. The returns generally are not
so good as on Nasdaq 100 stocks or sub-Nasdaq 100 stocks,
but the stocks are far less likely to hurt you. On the
other hand, they tend to be much more expensive stocks.
As always, do your research, since any stock can go down.
S&P
100 Examples:
Recently,
Nextel on this list at $24.65 and the May 25 call was
paying a $1.20 premium, which protected down to 23.45.
Return: 4.87% for a 51-day trade. Downside
Protection: 4.87%.
Recently,
Boise Cascade was 34.74 on our list and the May 35 call
was paying a $1.60 premium, which protected down to
33.14. Return: 4.61% for a 51-day trade.
Downside Protection: 4.61%.
Recently,
Halliburton was 30.45 on our list and the May 30 call
was paying a $1.70 premium, which protected down to
28.75. Return: 4.11% for a 51-day trade.
Downside Protection: 4.11%.
Rule No. 3 - safely maximize your returns.
Everyone
is interested in making the most money safely and we at
CallWriter certainly believe in maximizing your returns.
However, be aware that writing LEAPS™ or other calls
with multiple months left until expiration will never
provide the best returns and keep you in the trade too
long.
Write
at the money (ATM) or in the money (ITM). Things
being equal, the highest returning calls are the at-the-money
(ATM) calls. They offer decent downside protection, though
not nearly as great as the ITM calls. ITm calls offer
lower returns but vastly greater downside protection.
Again, if you are concerned about a pullback, or unsure
of your ability to size up the stock's technicals, write
deep ITM until you get your trading sea legs.
TIP:
Deeply out-of-the-money (OTM) calls - more
than 3% or 4% OT -) should only be written on rising
stocks in a rising market.
Write
the Front Month. The best returns are almost
always obtained by writing calls in the front month (the
month that will expire next), unless the front month
is expiring in 10 days or less. The reason is that the
fattest premium is gotten for the front month. Put differently,
if you sell a call 3 months out, you won’t get anything
like 3x the premium for the front month, but you will
be in the trade 3x longer. We really don't like being
in a covered call trade more than six weeks: it's an income
strategy, not a buy-and-hold strategy. Remember that the
further out in time you write, the longer you are at risk
in the trade.
How
can covered call writing work so well? Simple,
you aren't investing for the long term and don't have
to be right about the stock's direction more than a few
weeks. Suppose that analysts are saying stock XYZ will
fall a lot this year, maybe 30% to 50%. This means stock
investors should run from it, of course. But the covered
call writer is ONLY AT RISK for the time he/she is in
the trade. And you don't care what the stock does over
the long term or intermediate term:
TIP:
You are only concerned about the likelihood of a drop,
and the extent of a likely drop, over the trade's duration!
If you are consistently writing ITM with premiums that
are 15% or more of the stock's price and being careful
about the stocks you trade, it will be very hard for
the market to hurt you.
A
quick note about ITM writing: Writing deeply
ITM is not the cure for every ill that can beset the covered
call writer. You might recall the tech crash of March
2000 when unprofitable but high-flying tech stocks dropped
like rocks. Looking at such stocks, you might ask, as
do covered call writing opponents, how would the covered
call writer have fared differently? The answer may surprise
you:
First,
a covered call writer trading those stocks would have
fared little better, but would at least have pocketed
a fat premium up front.
Second,
no one following the CallWriter Method would have
touched those stocks, because they were very unprofitable
(had never made money) and were trading at a sky-high
P/E (price to earnings ratio). You must be aware that
if you insist on writing garbage stocks, ITM writing
will not save you when they tank.
The
tips above aren't by any means all the things CallWriter
teaches for consistently profitable covered call writing.
In fact, they are only the tip of the iceberg. But you
would be amazed how many of our members are making consistent
profits using little more (and in some cases, even less)
than the tips above!

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Disclaimer
We
are not brokers, investment advisers or securities
analysts and do not recommend the purchase,
sale or holding of any security. Your use
of any information or strategy appearing in
this newsletter or on CallWriter.com is solely
at your own risk. We urge our newsletter subscribers
and CallWriter.com website members to do all
requisite and analysis and properly plan each
trade prior to making the trade and to manage
each trade effectively. Covered call and other
potential trades discussed in this newsletter
or on CallWriter.com do not constitute trading
recommendations by CallWriter or any other
person and are presented by solely for informational
and educational purposes. |
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