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Today
we're having a not-so-lighthearted look at
one of, if not the, most important rules in
covered call writing. It's not a technical
rule, not one of these precise-measurement
kinds of rules. No, it's a purely common-sense
rule.
Now
that I have you panting to know what my #1
rule is, without further ado, it is:
| Covered
Call Rule No. 1:
Like the stock. |
That's
it; like the stock. What it
means is that - - assuming you are not called
out of the stock - - you would be content
to hold the the underlying stock in your portfolio
for the medium or long term, if need be. When
you do a covered call buy-write (buy the stock,
write the call), you of course own the stock.
But we expect to be called out, keeping
the premium and losing the stock for a nice
return. But if you are not called out, you
continue to hold the stock, and if the stock
price is down, your choices essentially are
sell it for a loss or hold the stock for better
times, continuing to write calls on it.
Ah,
but that's the hitch. It is a poor practice
to hold a covered call stock after expiration
just because it is down, just because you
don't want to take a loss. A low-quality stock
may hurt you far worse in the future if you
hold it. It is wise to hold only the high-quality
stocks - really, those you would be happy
to stick in your portfolio. Liking the stock
means simply that you would be content to
hold it for an extended period. When you hold
a stock, it IS in your portfolio.
With
a tip of the hat (and sincere apologies) to
Jeff Foxworthy...
If
you feel the need to keep asking trader
friends what they think of the stock...
you didn't like the stock.
If
your knuckles are white and you're dying
for the trade to be over and be out of the
stock... you didn't like the stock.
If
you feel like puking when you realize the
stock was down at expiration and you weren't
called out... you didn't like the stock.
If
you wouldn't want to be caught dead with
this stock in your portfolio... you didn't
like the stock.
If...
well, you get the picture.
I
didn't invent this rule and don't know who
did (Wade Cook popularized the concept), but
boy did I learn the power of it. What I like
about the rule is that it expresses a deep
human truth without resort to technical or
mathematical information that makes any attempt
to quantify the value or prospects of the
stock. Therefore I'm not saying you should
like the stock if it is above the 200-day
moving average, or has a high Zacks rating,
or has high earnings-per-share growth, or
anything of the sort. Probably no two investors
have exactly the same stocks in their portfolio,
so opinions can differ radically.
By
"like the stock" I mean that YOU
should like and respect the stock enough to
be content to hold it in your portfolio if
not called out. I might not like the stock
so well, or your brother-in-law the stock
expert might not like it, but the stock is
not my portfolio or his, is it? It's YOUR
portfolio we're talking about.
Writing
a covered call on a stock you're not willing
to hold is the single biggest mistake I see
new and even experienced covered writers make.
This is a gut-feeling issue, friends, but
also more than that. The fact that you would
be content to own the stock for a possibly
lengthy period of time if not assigned is
a very important litmus test. When we are
nervous, fearful or disdainful about a stock,
it is our subconscious warning us.
This
is not just psychological mumbo-jumbo, either.
On some subliminal level, we know a stock
is flighty, that its quality is low, that
we haven't really analyzed it, that it is
grossly overpriced... whatever. Sometimes,
it's not a subliminal feeling at all - we
know perfectly well the stock is garbage and
write it anyway, hoping or assuming we'll
get away with it before the market gives the
stock its come-uppance.
Conversely,
when you like and respect the stock, you just
feel better about your decision and are far
less likely to second-guess yourself and make
a panicky decision. Put in movie terms:
if love means never having to say you're sorry,
then liking the stock means never having to
say you're sorry you bought the damn thing.
It's bad enough to have a bad trade without
also feeling the need to beat ourselves up
- and we all do it. Stick with stocks you're
happy as a clam to own.
All
this naturally assumes you know something
about the stock, of course, that you know
why you like it. How else could you
be happy to have it join your portfolio? These
warm feelings about a stock should be based
on knowledge. Whether you know the stock and
follow its fortunes, or whether you have done
the proper homework the proper way (like CallWriter
teaches) you can only truly like a stock,
as I use the term, when you know it. Anything
less than real knowledge is, well... less.
It
is a real mistake to figure that, even though
it is a stock you'd never be caught dead holding,
you'll just cream it for a few easy premium
bucks by writing calls on it. Maybe it's just
my fevered perspective, but it seems that
it's almost always the ones we would never
want to be stuck with - the ones we don't
really like - that hurt us. Almost every time
a stock has hurt me, what I knew in all honesty
was that I knew better.
In
picking covered call stocks, ignorance decidedly
is not bliss. Every time we don't do our analysis
on a stock and don't know the stock, we're
ignorant.
This is not disciplined trading, and this
is not "liking" the stock.
The
bad ones tend to stay bad: The flighty little
tech stock that drops from $30 to $10 probably
isn'tt coming back anytime soon, if ever -
it had its overpriced day in the sun - and
you could be in it for many years. It might,
but you certainly can't count on it. You can
sell $10 Calls on it every month for 0.30
or so as long as you want, but that is a deep
hole - deduct just trade costs and taxes on
short-term gains and see how you'd do.
On
the other hand, the good stocks are no sweat.
We have a comfort level on those stocks that
is spine-deep, because we know we bought quality.
A hallmark of quality is that things of quality
last. Just as fashions come back in style,
a really good company will have its day again
- it's an investment, in other words. And
even though covered call writers are not really
investors, per se, it becomes a good
investment that you can continue to sell calls
on as long as you own it. Why?
The
good ones tend to stay good: and thus they
come back. Even stolid blue chips like WalMart
can take a hit. But they come back. And you
can cream them regularly for premium in the
process of getting even. Exxon might be down,
but do you really think the petroleum business
suddenly became unprofitable or its prospects
have more than momentarily dimmed?
Timing
is not so important. Suppose you really like
the stock, but now is not the time you would
pick to buy it, ideally. Maybe you would like
it better at a lower price. Maybe for some
other reason now is not the perfect entry
time. The question is, if you are not assigned,
whether you will be annoyed, apprehensive
or terrified that you still own the stock.
In other words, it is about comfort level,
not stock timing.
If
the timing is so off that you just don't like
the stock right now, then you've answered
your own question. Timing or no timing, don't
get fancy. You either like the stock or you
don't. If you start quibbling with yourself
and have trouble making up your mind, pass
on the trade. You don't like it enough.
If
you're saying to yourself, "That's it,
that's Rule No. 1? Like the stock?" -
the answer is yup. This rule does not tell
you how to analyze stocks or provide any criteria
for evaluating them. And it is not a way of
saying that it's OK to fill up your portfolio
with poor-quality stocks that you happen to
like. Remember: knowledge. Whatever you process
or criteria for evaluating stocks as possible
medium- to long-term investments, if you wouldn't
be willing to hold the stock for an extended
period, don't write covered calls on it.
There
are many powerful rules that relate to evaluating
and picking covered call trades, all rational
and all time-tested. But you would be surprised
how powerful my Rule No. 1 is. Do your homework
and stick with stocks you have researched
or know well and are willing to own for an
extended period; you'll be surprised how much
better your results are. |