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One
knock frequently heard about covered writing is not that
it is conservative but that it is, well, boring. I don't
find making money boring, but some do. What most people
fail to realize is that there are many styles of covered
writing, all the way from Rip-van-winkle strategies to active
trading to strategies that are too white-knuckle for me.
My point is not that any of these styles are good or bad,
or right or wrong; merely that they are styles. Like a boxer
or downhill ski racer, every good trader selects a strategy
and style that is in sync with his or her personality. Anything
else won't work for long and will not be much fun in any
event.
Without
further ado, let's dive in to some of the most common styles
of covered call writing...
The
Active Writer
Wall
Street does not give money away, so option premium gets
high for a reason. The reason frequently is that the market
is awaiting the resolution of an impending event (I call
them "volatility events") affecting
the company. The event may be resolution of a lawsuit or
union vote, an imminent earnings announcement, results of
a clinical trial and so on. Sometimes the event is one of
great magnitude, more usually not. Options may also be high
because the underlying stock is highly volatile, or is recently
volatile (the stock may be responding positively or adversely
to recent news). As you know, high premium implies - but
does not forecast - volatility in stock price. Most stocks
on our
Real Time Lists™ of the highest-returning
covered call trades don't move that much when the volatility
event arrives.
But
once the event passes uneventfully, the premium returns
to more normal levels. When this happens it is possible
to buy back the calls far more cheaply than the premium
gotten from their sale, even if the stock price is the same
or higher. This adjustment sometimes makes it possible to
close the trade at an acceptable profit level, frequently
at an even better profit level than originally anticipated.
Active
writers watch trades carefully in order to advantageously
close them with a profit when possible. This enables the
trader to redeploy capital into new trades before expiration,
compounding returns faster. They are getting, in banker
parlance, a faster "turn" on their
trading capital. Closing a trade early of course does not
mean the trader has to instantly find a new trade. Some
traders will get as many trades in as possible with the
same dollars and some are less inclined to hunt up new trades.
The
Laid Back Trader
This
trader is not looking to maximize monthly returns. A consistent
return of two percent or so a month is fine with this trader,
who likes to pick conservative stocks and let them go to
expiration. This trader frequently will not close a trade
early even if an acceptable profit is available, nor modify
the trade to catch an up move in the stock. In fact this
trader doesn't check stock prices very often, sometimes
not even once a day. There is nothing wrong with this style,
and no rule commands us to milk every penny out of trades.
This
style trades off potentially higher returns (which absorb
more of your time) for more personal time. This is a favored
approach for those too busy to spend time on trades unless
attention is required by an adverse move in the underlying
stock. It is also favored by those who would rather spend
their days fishing or playing with grandchildren. This method
definitely puts a lot of weight on stock selection, and
these traders tend to favor large defensive stocks, meaning
those people buy less for their upside potential than for
the safety factor. The laid back trader would start
with CallWriter's S&P 100 list, looking for the
most hammer-safe stocks not facing a major volatility event.
[I'm not suggesting any trading is "safe" - just
that some stocks tend to be more stable than others.]
This
trader picks top-notch stocks, lets them go to expiration
and sells the stocks when called. When not called out, the
trader either re-writes the stock or sells the stock to
get into a better trade. This style involves low stress
and a low activity level - meaning as little time as possible
is spent picking and managing trades. Every minute spent
trading is a minute that the trader doesn't have a hook
in the water. Another benefit of this style is that the
stocks used are not historically volatile and tend not to
move a lot, or very fast, meaning that it tends to be easier
to react to moves in the stock. If the stock is down the
trader just keeps writing it.
The
Deep Trader
First
cousin to the laid back trader is the deep in the money
(ITM) trader, who concentrates on writing calls that
are at least 10% ITM. The returns tend to be lower by at
least one to two points than at-the-money (ATM) calls on
the same stocks, but there is a method to this trader's
madness. Although the return may be lower, the deeply ITM
call offers the biggest premium and thus the most downside
protection against a pullback in the stock. In fact, deeply
ITM writes are one of the prime methods I use to write in
a dropping bear market. This strategy can easily yield 2%-3%
a month.
Not
just any stock will do, of course, since a stock that drops
50% is no bargain under any circumstances. Thus deeply ITM
writes are no license to let your trade selection fall apart.
But by concentrating on the biggest and best stocks, the
ITM technique is among the lowest-risk ways to write covered
calls. A big benefit is that the trader is far more likely
to be called out of the shares, which means that there is
no necessity to deal with a stock that was not called out
and may not offer particularly good premium in the next
option cycle.
The typical ATM list of covered call trades will not usually
include many of these trades. You really need a list devoted
to ITM trades in order to find them. CallWriter's Real Time
Lists™ include a list of Deep In the Money
trades, which are at least 10% in the money.
Technical
Writers
This
trader tends to write out of the money (OTM) and
focus on stocks with strong technicals that are likely to
advance enough by expiration to get called out at the OTM
strike price. There are many chart patterns that can qualify
for the technical writer, far too many to discuss here.
The key is a technical pattern that holds the promise of
enough of a movement by expiration to get the stock called
out at the OTM strike. Interestingly, these writes can be
found even in a dropping market, just as bad trades can
be found in a great bull market.
There
is a speculative element to this style, of course, since
the OTM writer is taking the smallest premium (compared
to ATM and ITM calls) and thus getting the smallest downside
protection. OTM writing rewards good technical analysis
ability, without a doubt. This trader will often be wrong,
but also will often be right. Returns will vary; they're
great when called out, mediocre sometimes on trades not
called out. When people claim to be averaging better than
5% a month in their buy-writing returns, they usually are
using some variant of this strategy.
| Some
covered call teachers say to write OTM calls in rising
markets and ITM calls in falling markets. Generally,
but only very generally, I agree with this. However,
some stocks underperform a rising market, and some
far outperform a falling market. Don't construct any
trade based on such cosmic generalities. Look at the
market, the industry and the stock. They will tell
you which call to write. (It is something I go
into detail about in my seminars)
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A
variant of this strategy is to write half of the call contracts
ATM and the other half OTM, resulting in a blended write
with an effective strike somewhere between the ATM and OTM
strikes. For example, when the stock is $30, you might write
half the calls at the 30 strike and half at the 32.5 or
35 strike.
The
technical writer also is the one who tends to roll up
(buy back the short calls and sell calls with a higher
strike price) in order to catch more of the price increase
on a moving stock. This is not a good or bad technique,
just a technique. It is great when it works, not so great
when it doesn't. But everyone tries it sooner or later.
Good technical analystss can do quite well with it.
CallWriter's
Real Time Lists™ include a list of Deep Out of
the Money trades, which are at least 10% out of the
money. This list is important, because even if you like
an OTM strategy, you must first be able to find them.
The
Leggy Writer
Most
covered writers for the most part use the "buy-write"
technique, which simply means to write the calls when the
stock is purchased. Modern trading platforms usually allow
the trade to be entered so that the stock purchase and call
write legs are done simultaneously. An alternative writing
method to the buy-write is the "legging in"
technique in which the writer buys an advancing stock and
writes OTM calls days or even weeks later, after the stock
has further increased in price. This trick can really supercharge
returns.
It
can be viewed as a variant of the technical writing strategy,
since it requires a stock that actually is moving. This
writer lets the stock do all the work and simply waits for
further price appreciation to poach a larger premium. Using
this technique can double or triple the return in the trade,
frequently even if the trader is not called out of the stock.
When the stock actually is advancing (perhaps reacting to
previous news), the call premium can be quite high. The
reason is that the market does not have to wait and see
if the stock will move - it is moving already.
LEAPS
Writers
These
traders purchase the underlying stock (not LEAPS calls)
and write LEAPS calls against the shares, instead of writing
the current-month calls. They may in fact sell any call
three or more months out. They are not making maximum use
of time decay, which is greatest in the last 30 days before
expiration, but are getting a much higher premium with great
time value. These are some of the lowest-maintenance trades
of all, since stock prices are only checked a couple of
times a week. These writers understand that the stock will
likely fluctuate with market and industry movements and
do not worry about it; although they will modify a trade
if it is advantageous to do so.
These
writes can be OTM, ATM or ITM, depending on your perception
of the direction the market and the stock will take, and
also depending on your own personality traits. However,
the ITM strike yields the highest premium and moves most
with the stock price (has the highest delta). On the other
hand, if you see the stock increasing meaningfully over
the life of the calls, it makes sense to write OTM.
This
strategy does not offer a monthly return, since the writer
expects to be in the trade possibly months. And it offers
on its face a much lower return than a monthly writing strategy,
because the amount of premium obtained per month gets progressively
smaller the further out in time you write (my term for it
is premium compression). However, many times these
trades can be closed early for a great return. And when
an OTM write works well, it still can be a pretty impressive
return.
For
this strategy you want top-notch stocks that are in a major
uptrend (on a weekly chart) and have impressive fundamentals.
Other indicia of a bright future over the next twelve months
are also helpful, such as the company is flush with cash
and executing a major stock buyback, or insiders are buying
the stock heavily in the open market. There are many other
ways to use LEAPS calls, including buying the LEAPS calls
instead of the stock, that I will cover in seminars, but
space does not permit even a description of them here.
Portfolio
Writing
I
almost forgot the portfolio writer, who simply writes calls
on stocks in the old portfolio as a means of forcing the
stocks to pay a monthly dividend. If you don't want the
stock to be called away, you must be ready to either buy
back the calls or roll them out (or up and out) to a subsequent
month.
My
favorite technique on a stock in a trading range is to write
deep ITM calls when the stock is hitting a major resistance
level and can be expected to fall. Better yet, it has already
stalled at resistance and is headed back downtown. You sell
an ITM call and buy it back when the stock is at a much
lower level. Because it costs vastly less to buy back the
call then the premium obtained upon sale, you make a profit
on closing the call. You don't care about the stock's price
falling, because you owned it anyway and it was falling
anyway, whether you wrote calls or not. By writing the ITM
call and buying it back, you simply creamed the stock for
some premium. NOTE: if you don't buy back the call you canl
lose the stock when assigned on the calls.
If
you don't want to lose the stock, it is not a good idea
to write the stock at support, because if it recovers into
a new advance, you will be in the position of having to
buy it back or roll out to protect the stock The same applies
if the stock is in an uptrend. Some portfolio writers like
to write longer-term calls that are not really in play as
the stock moves around, because they don't need to be closed
or rolled out very often.
And
Even More...
These
trading styles and techniques are only the tip of the iceberg,
of course. Some people combine them or use more than one,
depending on the circumstances. Do you know what those circumstances
are? There isn't room in this newsletter issue to do more
than outline the more common styles and how they work in
very general terms. For example, there are those who only
write in the last week or so before option expiration.
In
my upcoming seminar in Orlando, I will be covering some
of the most common covered call writing techniques, including
those above, and how to execute them. Some
of these techniques are not known and not taught by anyone
else.
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The
Covered Call Stop Loss
Question:
Have
been trading covered calls for 1 year now and struggle with
where to set our stop loss. This seems to be our biggest
downfall. Should we get out when price drops to our Breakeven
(from which many stocks bounce back up) or should we set
a stop at say 10% below our cost leaving more room for movement???
Answer:
Stock prices oscillate about, and you've hit the major problem
of stops being too tight - namely that you can get stopped
out of a trade prematurely that ultimately works fine. Stocks
frequently pull back to a trend line or 50-day moving average
and then recover. This is why I don't like a percentage
stop and don't like a stop at breakeven; neither bears any
relation to what the stock is doing and the danger it poses,
if any. The breakeven in particular just tells you where
the stock is in relation to your cost basis; it doesn't
actually tell you what to do. I prefer to watch my trades
and manage them.
Always
know where support is for the stock, including not only
traditional support levels, but also the 50-day moving average
or trendline. I worry less about the breakeven than whether
the stock is above support. Stocks will test support; it’s
normal and healthy. Obviously, you must take into account
the relevance of the support level - how recent, how strong,
etc. Until it violates support I am normally inclined to
give a good stock the benefit of the doubt.
If
you are not able to watch the stock, then set the stop below
a support level. If the stock violates support, especially
when you cannot be on top of it, that is the point to get
out. If you write a stock that is far above support, you
have an obvious problem. That is, when a support level is
so far below the current price that even a stop below support
would still result in a meaningful loss, support is not
very practical as a gauge for setting the stop. In this
case, you would have to set the stop at some percentage
point below your cost basis. (See the importance of support
levels in covered writing?)
If
you are able to watch the stock, then you have the option
of rolling the calls to a lower strike in the same month
or the next month out. By the time the stock gets close
to the breakeven point, you should be using my Trade
Management Calculator™ to look at the
nearest ITM strike to see if a roll down offers any advantage.
The key in a dropping stock is WHY it is dropping. Is it
falling with the market or its industry, or falling on its
own bad news? Many people who panicked when the market corrected
in early May did not manage their trades but bolted out
of stocks when they slid down far enough. The good stocks
have mostly recovered, leaving the traders with perhaps
needless losses. Many times on a dropping stock I will either
roll down or simply close the call and wait to get a new
direction on the stock.
True,
sometimes it is better to get out of the stock and not chase
it. For a stock that looks dangerous or is really scaring
you, that is the best course, if only for peace of mind.
But it is always smart to reanalyze the trade before rolling
down or closing. Otherwise, there is no way to assess your
situation and the best move. Simply closing a trade every
time the stock pulls back below breakeven will yield a string
of small losses on trades that could have been profitable.
If you are picking great trades, you won't get in trouble
very often.
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