
One
knock frequently heard about covered writing is not that
it is conservative but that it is, well, boring. I don't
find making money boring, but some do. What most people
fail to realize is that there are many styles of covered
writing, all the way from Rip-van-winkle strategies to
active trading to strategies that are too white-knuckle
for me. My point is not that any of these styles are good
or bad, or right or wrong; merely that they are styles.
Like a boxer or downhill ski racer, every good trader
selects a strategy and style that is in sync with his
or her personality. Anything else won't work for long
and will not be much fun in any event.
Without
further ado, let's dive in to some of the most common
styles of covered call writing...
The
Active Writer
Wall
Street does not give money away, so option premium gets
high for a reason. The reason frequently is that the market
is awaiting the resolution of an impending event (I call
them "volatility events") affecting
the company. The event may be resolution of a lawsuit
or union vote, an imminent earnings announcement, results
of a clinical trial and so on. Sometimes the event is
one of great magnitude, more usually not. Options may
also be high because the underlying stock is highly volatile,
or is recently volatile (the stock may be responding positively
or adversely to recent news). As you know, high premium
implies - but does not forecast - volatility in stock
price. Most stocks on our
Real Time Lists™ of the highest-returning
covered call trades don't move that much when the volatility
event arrives.
But
once the event passes uneventfully, the premium returns
to more normal levels. When this happens it is possible
to buy back the calls far more cheaply than the premium
gotten from their sale, even if the stock price is the
same or higher. This adjustment sometimes makes it possible
to close the trade at an acceptable profit level, frequently
at an even better profit level than originally anticipated.
Active
writers watch trades carefully in order to advantageously
close them with a profit when possible. This enables the
trader to redeploy capital into new trades before expiration,
compounding returns faster. They are getting, in banker
parlance, a faster "turn" on their
trading capital. Closing a trade early of course does
not mean the trader has to instantly find a new trade.
Some traders will get as many trades in as possible with
the same dollars and some are less inclined to hunt up
new trades.
The
Laid Back Trader
This
trader is not looking to maximize monthly returns. A consistent
return of two percent or so a month is fine with this
trader, who likes to pick conservative stocks and let
them go to expiration. This trader frequently will not
close a trade early even if an acceptable profit is available,
nor modify the trade to catch an up move in the stock.
In fact this trader doesn't check stock prices very often,
sometimes not even once a day. There is nothing wrong
with this style, and no rule commands us to milk every
penny out of trades.
This
style trades off potentially higher returns (which absorb
more of your time) for more personal time. This is a favored
approach for those too busy to spend time on trades unless
attention is required by an adverse move in the underlying
stock. It is also favored by those who would rather spend
their days fishing or playing with grandchildren. This
method definitely puts a lot of weight on stock selection,
and these traders tend to favor large defensive stocks,
meaning those people buy less for their upside potential
than for the safety factor. The laid back trader
would start with CallWriter's S&P 100 list,
looking for the most hammer-safe stocks not facing a major
volatility event. [I'm not suggesting any trading is "safe"
- just that some stocks tend to be more stable than others.]
This
trader picks top-notch stocks, lets them go to expiration
and sells the stocks when called. When not called out,
the trader either re-writes the stock or sells the stock
to get into a better trade. This style involves low stress
and a low activity level - meaning as little time as possible
is spent picking and managing trades. Every minute spent
trading is a minute that the trader doesn't have a hook
in the water. Another benefit of this style is that the
stocks used are not historically volatile and tend not
to move a lot, or very fast, meaning that it tends to
be easier to react to moves in the stock. If the stock
is down the trader just keeps writing it.
The
Deep Trader
First
cousin to the laid back trader is the deep in the money
(ITM) trader, who concentrates on writing calls
that are at least 10% ITM. The returns tend to be lower
by at least one to two points than at-the-money (ATM)
calls on the same stocks, but there is a method to this
trader's madness. Although the return may be lower, the
deeply ITM call offers the biggest premium and thus the
most downside protection against a pullback in the stock.
In fact, deeply ITM writes are one of the prime methods
I use to write in a dropping bear market. This strategy
can easily yield 2%-3% a month.
Not
just any stock will do, of course, since a stock that
drops 50% is no bargain under any circumstances. Thus
deeply ITM writes are no license to let your trade selection
fall apart. But by concentrating on the biggest and best
stocks, the ITM technique is among the lowest-risk ways
to write covered calls. A big benefit is that the trader
is far more likely to be called out of the shares, which
means that there is no necessity to deal with a stock
that was not called out and may not offer particularly
good premium in the next option cycle.
The typical ATM list of covered call trades will not usually
include many of these trades. You really need a list devoted
to ITM trades in order to find them. CallWriter's Real
Time Lists™ include a list of Deep In the Money
trades, which are at least 10% in the money.
Technical
Writers
This
trader tends to write out of the money (OTM) and
focus on stocks with strong technicals that are likely
to advance enough by expiration to get called out at the
OTM strike price. There are many chart patterns that can
qualify for the technical writer, far too many to discuss
here. The key is a technical pattern that holds the promise
of enough of a movement by expiration to get the stock
called out at the OTM strike. Interestingly, these writes
can be found even in a dropping market, just as bad trades
can be found in a great bull market.
There
is a speculative element to this style, of course, since
the OTM writer is taking the smallest premium (compared
to ATM and ITM calls) and thus getting the smallest downside
protection. OTM writing rewards good technical analysis
ability, without a doubt. This trader will often be wrong,
but also will often be right. Returns will vary; they're
great when called out, mediocre sometimes on trades not
called out. When people claim to be averaging better than
5% a month in their buy-writing returns, they usually
are using some variant of this strategy.
| Some
covered call teachers say to write OTM calls in
rising markets and ITM calls in falling markets.
Generally, but only very generally, I agree with
this. However, some stocks underperform a rising
market, and some far outperform a falling market.
Don't construct any trade based on such cosmic generalities.
Look at the market, the industry and the stock.
They will tell you which call to write. (It is
something I go into detail about in my seminars)
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A
variant of this strategy is to write half of the call
contracts ATM and the other half OTM, resulting in a blended
write with an effective strike somewhere between the
ATM and OTM strikes. For example, when the stock is $30,
you might write half the calls at the 30 strike and half
at the 32.5 or 35 strike.
The
technical writer also is the one who tends to roll
up (buy back the short calls and sell calls with
a higher strike price) in order to catch more of the
price increase on a moving stock. This is not a good or
bad technique, just a technique. It is great when it works,
not so great when it doesn't. But everyone tries it sooner
or later. Good technical analystss can do quite well with
it.
CallWriter's
Real Time Lists™ include a list of Deep Out of
the Money trades, which are at least 10% out of the
money. This list is important, because even if you like
an OTM strategy, you must first be able to find them.
The
Leggy Writer
Most
covered writers for the most part use the "buy-write"
technique, which simply means to write the calls when
the stock is purchased. Modern trading platforms usually
allow the trade to be entered so that the stock purchase
and call write legs are done simultaneously. An alternative
writing method to the buy-write is the "legging
in" technique in which the writer buys an advancing
stock and writes OTM calls days or even weeks later, after
the stock has further increased in price. This trick can
really supercharge returns.
It
can be viewed as a variant of the technical writing strategy,
since it requires a stock that actually is moving. This
writer lets the stock do all the work and simply waits
for further price appreciation to poach a larger premium.
Using this technique can double or triple the return in
the trade, frequently even if the trader is not called
out of the stock. When the stock actually is advancing
(perhaps reacting to previous news), the call premium
can be quite high. The reason is that the market does
not have to wait and see if the stock will move - it is
moving already.
LEAPS
Writers
These
traders purchase the underlying stock (not LEAPS calls)
and write LEAPS calls against the shares, instead of writing
the current-month calls. They may in fact sell any call
three or more months out. They are not making maximum
use of time decay, which is greatest in the last 30 days
before expiration, but are getting a much higher premium
with great time value. These are some of the lowest-maintenance
trades of all, since stock prices are only checked a couple
of times a week. These writers understand that the stock
will likely fluctuate with market and industry movements
and do not worry about it; although they will modify a
trade if it is advantageous to do so.
These
writes can be OTM, ATM or ITM, depending on your perception
of the direction the market and the stock will take, and
also depending on your own personality traits. However,
the ITM strike yields the highest premium and moves most
with the stock price (has the highest delta). On the other
hand, if you see the stock increasing meaningfully over
the life of the calls, it makes sense to write OTM.
This
strategy does not offer a monthly return, since the writer
expects to be in the trade possibly months. And it offers
on its face a much lower return than a monthly writing
strategy, because the amount of premium obtained per month
gets progressively smaller the further out in time you
write (my term for it is premium compression).
However, many times these trades can be closed early for
a great return. And when an OTM write works well, it still
can be a pretty impressive return.
For
this strategy you want top-notch stocks that are in a
major uptrend (on a weekly chart) and have impressive
fundamentals. Other indicia of a bright future over the
next twelve months are also helpful, such as the company
is flush with cash and executing a major stock buyback,
or insiders are buying the stock heavily in the open market.
There are many other ways to use LEAPS calls, including
buying the LEAPS calls instead of the stock, that I will
cover in seminars, but space does not permit even a description
of them here.
Portfolio
Writing
I
almost forgot the portfolio writer, who simply writes
calls on stocks in the old portfolio as a means of forcing
the stocks to pay a monthly dividend. If you don't want
the stock to be called away, you must be ready to either
buy back the calls or roll them out (or up and out) to
a subsequent month.
My
favorite technique on a stock in a trading range is to
write deep ITM calls when the stock is hitting a major
resistance level and can be expected to fall. Better yet,
it has already stalled at resistance and is headed back
downtown. You sell an ITM call and buy it back when the
stock is at a much lower level. Because it costs vastly
less to buy back the call then the premium obtained upon
sale, you make a profit on closing the call. You don't
care about the stock's price falling, because you owned
it anyway and it was falling anyway, whether you
wrote calls or not. By writing the ITM call and buying
it back, you simply creamed the stock for some premium.
NOTE: if you don't buy back the call you canl lose the
stock when assigned on the calls.
If
you don't want to lose the stock, it is not a good idea
to write the stock at support, because if it recovers
into a new advance, you will be in the position of having
to buy it back or roll out to protect the stock The same
applies if the stock is in an uptrend. Some portfolio
writers like to write longer-term calls that are not really
in play as the stock moves around, because they don't
need to be closed or rolled out very often.
And
Even More...
These
trading styles and techniques are only the tip of the
iceberg, of course. Some people combine them or use more
than one, depending on the circumstances. Do you know
what those circumstances are? There isn't room in this
newsletter issue to do more than outline the more common
styles and how they work in very general terms. For example,
there are those who only write in the last week or so
before option expiration.
In
my upcoming seminar in Orlando, I will be covering some
of the most common covered call writing techniques, including
those above, and how to execute them. Some
of these techniques are not known and not taught by anyone
else.
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The
Covered Call Stop Loss
Question:
Have
been trading covered calls for 1 year now and struggle
with where to set our stop loss. This seems to be our
biggest downfall. Should we get out when price drops to
our Breakeven (from which many stocks bounce back up)
or should we set a stop at say 10% below our cost leaving
more room for movement???
Answer:
Stock prices oscillate about, and you've hit the major
problem of stops being too tight - namely that you can
get stopped out of a trade prematurely that ultimately
works fine. Stocks frequently pull back to a trend line
or 50-day moving average and then recover. This is why
I don't like a percentage stop and don't like a stop at
breakeven; neither bears any relation to what the stock
is doing and the danger it poses, if any. The breakeven
in particular just tells you where the stock is in relation
to your cost basis; it doesn't actually tell you what
to do. I prefer to watch my trades and manage them.
Always
know where support is for the stock, including not only
traditional support levels, but also the 50-day moving
average or trendline. I worry less about the breakeven
than whether the stock is above support. Stocks will test
support; it’s normal and healthy. Obviously, you
must take into account the relevance of the support level
- how recent, how strong, etc. Until it violates support
I am normally inclined to give a good stock the benefit
of the doubt.
If
you are not able to watch the stock, then set the stop
below a support level. If the stock violates support,
especially when you cannot be on top of it, that is the
point to get out. If you write a stock that is far above
support, you have an obvious problem. That is, when a
support level is so far below the current price that even
a stop below support would still result in a meaningful
loss, support is not very practical as a gauge for setting
the stop. In this case, you would have to set the stop
at some percentage point below your cost basis. (See the
importance of support levels in covered writing?)
If
you are able to watch the stock, then you have the option
of rolling the calls to a lower strike in the same month
or the next month out. By the time the stock gets close
to the breakeven point, you should be using my Trade
Management Calculator™ to look at the
nearest ITM strike to see if a roll down offers any advantage.
The key in a dropping stock is WHY it is dropping. Is
it falling with the market or its industry, or falling
on its own bad news? Many people who panicked when the
market corrected in early May did not manage their trades
but bolted out of stocks when they slid down far enough.
The good stocks have mostly recovered, leaving the traders
with perhaps needless losses. Many times on a dropping
stock I will either roll down or simply close the call
and wait to get a new direction on the stock.
True,
sometimes it is better to get out of the stock and not
chase it. For a stock that looks dangerous or is really
scaring you, that is the best course, if only for peace
of mind. But it is always smart to reanalyze the trade
before rolling down or closing. Otherwise, there is no
way to assess your situation and the best move. Simply
closing a trade every time the stock pulls back below
breakeven will yield a string of small losses on trades
that could have been profitable. If you are picking great
trades, you won't get in trouble very often.
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