|
One
knock frequently heard about covered writing
is not that it is conservative but that
it is, well, boring. I don't find making
money boring, but some do. What most people
fail to realize is that there are many styles
of covered writing, all the way from Rip-van-winkle
strategies to active trading to strategies
that are too white-knuckle for me. My point
is not that any of these styles are good
or bad, or right or wrong; merely that they
are styles. Like a boxer or downhill ski
racer, every good trader selects a strategy
and style that is in sync with his or her
personality. Anything else won't work for
long and will not be much fun in any event.
Without
further ado, let's dive in to some of the
most common styles of covered call writing...
Wall
Street does not give money away, so option
premium gets high for a reason. The reason
frequently is that the market is awaiting
the resolution of an impending event (I
call them "volatility events")
affecting the company. The event may be
resolution of a lawsuit or union vote, an
imminent earnings announcement, results
of a clinical trial and so on. Sometimes
the event is one of great magnitude, more
usually not. Options may also be high because
the underlying stock is highly volatile,
or is recently volatile (the stock may be
responding positively or adversely to recent
news). As you know, high premium implies
- but does not forecast - volatility in
stock price. Most stocks on our
Real Time Lists™ of the
highest-returning covered call trades don't
move that much when the volatility event
arrives.
But
once the event passes uneventfully, the
premium returns to more normal levels. When
this happens it is possible to buy back
the calls far more cheaply than the premium
gotten from their sale, even if the stock
price is the same or higher. This adjustment
sometimes makes it possible to close the
trade at an acceptable profit level, frequently
at an even better profit level than originally
anticipated.
Active
writers watch trades carefully in order
to advantageously close them with a profit
when possible. This enables the trader to
redeploy capital into new trades before
expiration, compounding returns faster.
They are getting, in banker parlance, a
faster "turn" on
their trading capital. Closing a trade early
of course does not mean the trader has to
instantly find a new trade. Some traders
will get as many trades in as possible with
the same dollars and some are less inclined
to hunt up new trades.
This
trader is not looking to maximize monthly
returns. A consistent return of two percent
or so a month is fine with this trader,
who likes to pick conservative stocks and
let them go to expiration. This trader frequently
will not close a trade early even if an
acceptable profit is available, nor modify
the trade to catch an up move in the stock.
In fact this trader doesn't check stock
prices very often, sometimes not even once
a day. There is nothing wrong with this
style, and no rule commands us to milk every
penny out of trades.
This
style trades off potentially higher returns
(which absorb more of your time) for more
personal time. This is a favored approach
for those too busy to spend time on trades
unless attention is required by an adverse
move in the underlying stock. It is also
favored by those who would rather spend
their days fishing or playing with grandchildren.
This method definitely puts a lot of weight
on stock selection, and these traders tend
to favor large defensive stocks, meaning
those people buy less for their upside potential
than for the safety factor. The laid
back trader would start with CallWriter's
S&P 100 list, looking for the
most hammer-safe stocks not facing a major
volatility event. [I'm not suggesting any
trading is "safe" - just that
some stocks tend to be more stable than
others.]
This
trader picks top-notch stocks, lets them
go to expiration and sells the stocks when
called. When not called out, the trader
either re-writes the stock or sells the
stock to get into a better trade. This style
involves low stress and a low activity level
- meaning as little time as possible is
spent picking and managing trades. Every
minute spent trading is a minute that the
trader doesn't have a hook in the water.
Another benefit of this style is that the
stocks used are not historically volatile
and tend not to move a lot, or very fast,
meaning that it tends to be easier to react
to moves in the stock. If the stock is down
the trader just keeps writing it.
First
cousin to the laid back trader is the deep
in the money (ITM) trader, who concentrates
on writing calls that are at least 10% ITM.
The returns tend to be lower by at least
one to two points than at-the-money (ATM)
calls on the same stocks, but there is a
method to this trader's madness. Although
the return may be lower, the deeply ITM
call offers the biggest premium and thus
the most downside protection against a pullback
in the stock. In fact, deeply ITM writes
are one of the prime methods I use to write
in a dropping bear market. This strategy
can easily yield 2%-3% a month.
Not
just any stock will do, of course, since
a stock that drops 50% is no bargain under
any circumstances. Thus deeply ITM writes
are no license to let your trade selection
fall apart. But by concentrating on the
biggest and best stocks, the ITM technique
is among the lowest-risk ways to write covered
calls. A big benefit is that the trader
is far more likely to be called out of the
shares, which means that there is no necessity
to deal with a stock that was not called
out and may not offer particularly good
premium in the next option cycle.
The typical ATM list of covered call trades
will not usually include many of these trades.
You really need a list devoted to ITM trades
in order to find them. CallWriter's Real
Time Lists™ include a list of Deep
In the Money trades, which are at least
10% in the money.
This
trader tends to write out of the money (OTM)
and focus on stocks with strong technicals
that are likely to advance enough by expiration
to get called out at the OTM strike price.
There are many chart patterns that can qualify
for the technical writer, far too many to
discuss here. The key is a technical pattern
that holds the promise of enough of a movement
by expiration to get the stock called out
at the OTM strike. Interestingly, these
writes can be found even in a dropping market,
just as bad trades can be found in a great
bull market.
There
is a speculative element to this style,
of course, since the OTM writer is taking
the smallest premium (compared to ATM and
ITM calls) and thus getting the smallest
downside protection. OTM writing rewards
good technical analysis ability, without
a doubt. This trader will often be wrong,
but also will often be right. Returns will
vary; they're great when called out, mediocre
sometimes on trades not called out. When
people claim to be averaging better than
5% a month in their buy-writing returns,
they usually are using some variant of this
strategy.
|
Some
covered call teachers say to write
OTM calls in rising markets and ITM
calls in falling markets. Generally,
but only very generally, I agree with
this. However, some stocks underperform
a rising market, and some far outperform
a falling market. Don't construct
any trade based on such cosmic generalities.
Look at the market, the industry and
the stock. They will tell you which
call to write. (It is something
I go into detail about in my seminars)
|
A
variant of this strategy is to write half
of the call contracts ATM and the other
half OTM, resulting in a blended write
with an effective strike somewhere between
the ATM and OTM strikes. For example, when
the stock is $30, you might write half the
calls at the 30 strike and half at the 32.5
or 35 strike.
The
technical writer also is the one who tends
to roll up (buy back the short
calls and sell calls with a higher strike
price) in order to catch more of the
price increase on a moving stock. This is
not a good or bad technique, just a technique.
It is great when it works, not so great
when it doesn't. But everyone tries it sooner
or later. Good technical analystss can do
quite well with it.
CallWriter's
Real Time Lists™ include a list of
Deep Out of the Money trades, which
are at least 10% out of the money. This
list is important, because even if you like
an OTM strategy, you must first be able
to find them.
Most
covered writers for the most part use the
"buy-write" technique,
which simply means to write the calls when
the stock is purchased. Modern trading platforms
usually allow the trade to be entered so
that the stock purchase and call write legs
are done simultaneously. An alternative
writing method to the buy-write is the "legging
in" technique in which the writer
buys an advancing stock and writes OTM calls
days or even weeks later, after the stock
has further increased in price. This trick
can really supercharge returns.
It
can be viewed as a variant of the technical
writing strategy, since it requires a stock
that actually is moving. This writer lets
the stock do all the work and simply waits
for further price appreciation to poach
a larger premium. Using this technique can
double or triple the return in the trade,
frequently even if the trader is not called
out of the stock. When the stock actually
is advancing (perhaps reacting to previous
news), the call premium can be quite high.
The reason is that the market does not have
to wait and see if the stock will move -
it is moving already.
These
traders purchase the underlying stock (not
LEAPS calls) and write LEAPS calls against
the shares, instead of writing the current-month
calls. They may in fact sell any call three
or more months out. They are not making
maximum use of time decay, which is greatest
in the last 30 days before expiration, but
are getting a much higher premium with great
time value. These are some of the lowest-maintenance
trades of all, since stock prices are only
checked a couple of times a week. These
writers understand that the stock will likely
fluctuate with market and industry movements
and do not worry about it; although they
will modify a trade if it is advantageous
to do so.
These
writes can be OTM, ATM or ITM, depending
on your perception of the direction the
market and the stock will take, and also
depending on your own personality traits.
However, the ITM strike yields the highest
premium and moves most with the stock price
(has the highest delta). On the other hand,
if you see the stock increasing meaningfully
over the life of the calls, it makes sense
to write OTM.
This
strategy does not offer a monthly return,
since the writer expects to be in the trade
possibly months. And it offers on its face
a much lower return than a monthly writing
strategy, because the amount of premium
obtained per month gets progressively smaller
the further out in time you write (my term
for it is premium compression). However,
many times these trades can be closed early
for a great return. And when an OTM write
works well, it still can be a pretty impressive
return.
For
this strategy you want top-notch stocks
that are in a major uptrend (on a weekly
chart) and have impressive fundamentals.
Other indicia of a bright future over the
next twelve months are also helpful, such
as the company is flush with cash and executing
a major stock buyback, or insiders are buying
the stock heavily in the open market. There
are many other ways to use LEAPS calls,
including buying the LEAPS calls instead
of the stock, that I will cover in seminars,
but space does not permit even a description
of them here.
I
almost forgot the portfolio writer, who
simply writes calls on stocks in the old
portfolio as a means of forcing the stocks
to pay a monthly dividend. If you don't
want the stock to be called away, you must
be ready to either buy back the calls or
roll them out (or up and out) to a subsequent
month.
My
favorite technique on a stock in a trading
range is to write deep ITM calls when the
stock is hitting a major resistance level
and can be expected to fall. Better yet,
it has already stalled at resistance and
is headed back downtown. You sell an ITM
call and buy it back when the stock is at
a much lower level. Because it costs vastly
less to buy back the call then the premium
obtained upon sale, you make a profit on
closing the call. You don't care about the
stock's price falling, because you owned
it anyway and it was falling anyway,
whether you wrote calls or not. By writing
the ITM call and buying it back, you simply
creamed the stock for some premium. NOTE:
if you don't buy back the call you canl
lose the stock when assigned on the calls.
If
you don't want to lose the stock, it is
not a good idea to write the stock at support,
because if it recovers into a new advance,
you will be in the position of having to
buy it back or roll out to protect the stock
The same applies if the stock is in an uptrend.
Some portfolio writers like to write longer-term
calls that are not really in play as the
stock moves around, because they don't need
to be closed or rolled out very often.
These
trading styles and techniques are only the
tip of the iceberg, of course. Some people
combine them or use more than one, depending
on the circumstances. Do you know what those
circumstances are? There isn't room in this
newsletter issue to do more than outline
the more common styles and how they work
in very general terms. For example, there
are those who only write in the last week
or so before option expiration.
In
my upcoming seminar in Orlando, I will be
covering some of the most common covered
call writing techniques, including those
above, and how to execute them.
Some of these techniques are not known and
not taught by anyone else.
|
NOTE:
If you haven't taken my 30-second
survey for upcoming seminars (the
only way to get a major discount
on the price), please
take the seminar survey immediately
- you also get a killer special report
on using insider transactions in covered
call writing. I will soon be announcing
the details of the first Picking Wall
Street's Pocket™ seminar and
taking down the survey page. And when
I do, the big discount will be gone.
Time is running out.
|
LEAP
is a registered trademark of the Chicago
Board Options Exchange.
This
issue's Question and Answer:
The Covered Call Stop
Loss
Question:
Have
been trading covered calls for 1 year now
and struggle with where to set our stop
loss. This seems to be our biggest downfall.
Should we get out when price drops to our
Breakeven (from which many stocks bounce
back up) or should we set a stop at say
10% below our cost leaving more room for
movement???
Answer:
Stock
prices oscillate about, and you've hit the
major problem of stops being too tight -
namely that you can get stopped out of a
trade prematurely that ultimately works
fine. Stocks frequently pull back to a trend
line or 50-day moving average and then recover.
This is why I don't like a percentage stop
and don't like a stop at breakeven; neither
bears any relation to what the stock is
doing and the danger it poses, if any. The
breakeven in particular just tells you where
the stock is in relation to your cost basis;
it doesn't actually tell you what to do.
I prefer to watch my trades and manage them.
Always
know where support is for the stock, including
not only traditional support levels, but
also the 50-day moving average or trendline.
I worry less about the breakeven than whether
the stock is above support. Stocks will
test support; it’s normal and healthy.
Obviously, you must take into account the
relevance of the support level - how recent,
how strong, etc. Until it violates support
I am normally inclined to give a good stock
the benefit of the doubt.
If
you are not able to watch the stock, then
set the stop below a support level. If the
stock violates support, especially when
you cannot be on top of it, that is the
point to get out. If you write a stock that
is far above support, you have an obvious
problem. That is, when a support level is
so far below the current price that even
a stop below support would still result
in a meaningful loss, support is not very
practical as a gauge for setting the stop.
In this case, you would have to set the
stop at some percentage point below your
cost basis. (See the importance of support
levels in covered writing?)
If
you are able to watch the stock, then you
have the option of rolling the calls to
a lower strike in the same month or the
next month out. By the time the stock gets
close to the breakeven point, you should
be using my Trade
Management Calculator™
to look at the nearest ITM strike to see
if a roll down offers any advantage. The
key in a dropping stock is WHY it is dropping.
Is it falling with the market or its industry,
or falling on its own bad news? Many people
who panicked when the market corrected in
early May did not manage their trades but
bolted out of stocks when they slid down
far enough. The good stocks have mostly
recovered, leaving the traders with perhaps
needless losses. Many times on a dropping
stock I will either roll down or simply
close the call and wait to get a new direction
on the stock.
True,
sometimes it is better to get out of the
stock and not chase it. For a stock that
looks dangerous or is really scaring you,
that is the best course, if only for peace
of mind. But it is always smart to reanalyze
the trade before rolling down or closing.
Otherwise, there is no way to assess your
situation and the best move. Simply closing
a trade every time the stock pulls back
below breakeven will yield a string of small
losses on trades that could have been profitable.
If you are picking great trades, you won't
get in trouble very often.
|