
Dividend
Fundamentals
Most
mature public companies pay a cash dividend to shareholders.
This article will explore what effects dividends have
upon stock prices, call prices and put prices, as well
as how dividends affect covered call writers in particular.
For an explanation of how dividends work, please see our
detailed newsletter article on Dividend
Basics. A dividend actually is a distribution to a
company's owners (stockholders) of a part of the company's
earnings. The company's board of directors must authorize
(declare) payment of the dividend. When the dividend is
declared, the company will announce the record date, which
is the date the company will determine who is a shareholder
of record, and the payment date. Here is the chain of
events for each dividend:
| Declaration
date |
This
is the date the board of directors announces the dividend
to the shareholders and the markets generally. |
| Ex-dividend
date |
The
ex-dividend date
(a/k/a the ex-date) is the dividing line
for determining whether or not the buyer of a stock
gets the dividend. Those who buy the stock before
the ex-date will receive the dividend. Those who
buy it on or after the ex-date will
not. |
| Record
date |
The
dividend is paid only to those who own the stock of
record. The record date
is the date on which the company determines who owns
the stock and will be entitled to receive the dividend.
|
| Payment
Date |
The
payment date is
the date the company mails out dividend checks. It
usually is a week or so after the record date. |
Significance
of the Ex-Dividend Date
The
ex-date is always two business days before the record
date. For example, if the record date for the dividend
is Friday the 16th, the ex-date will be the preceding
Wednesday, the 14th. In order to get the dividend, you
must buy the stock before the ex-dividend date.
Before the ex-date, the stock is said to trade "with
dividend," because buyers of the stock will
receive the dividend. On and after the ex-date, the buyer
will not receive the dividend and the stock is said to
trade "without dividend." We all
know that stocks offer high covered call returns when
some impending event drives call premiums high. Sometimes
stocks soon to pay a dividend offer high enough premium
to hit CallWriter's Real Time Lists™ of the highest-returning
covered call trades. The question becomes, how should
covered writers approach dividend stocks?
Dividend
Effects on Stock Price
Wall
Street rarely gives money away, and that's as true of
dividends as anything else. For this reason, once the
dividend has been announced, the market prices it into
the stock. If a company should announce a $1.00 per share
quarterly dividend, the market will add that $1.00 into
the stock price. For example a $19 stock would usually
jump to $20 or so, unless the dividend was considered
to already have been priced in. Thus if you buy the stock
after the dividend is announced, you will not receive
a "free" dividend. You will have paid for the
impending dividend in the stock's price. When a stock
goes ex-dividend, on the other hand, the stock price will
be driven downward because the dividend payment reflects
a distribution of corporate assets, and thus some of the
share's value. The stock simply is not worth as much once
the stock trades without dividend.
The
amount the stock price will decline on the ex-date cannot
be ascertained exactly in advance. Some research indicates
that the stock price falls in an amount equal to the dividend,
other research that it falls but by an amount less than
the dividend paid. But the stock will almost certainly
fall on the ex-date, and you should figure on a drop in
roughly the amount of the per-share dividend. Since one
purchasing a stock on or after the ex-date does not receive
the dividend, no one would rationally pay the same price
on or after the ex-date as paid before the ex-date. That
is, the market prices the dividend in before the ex-date
and prices it out on the ex-date. Whatever the amount,
whether all or only a portion of the dividend, the stock
will fall on the ex-date. If you buy the stock after the
dividend announcement, you must hold the stock until at
least the ex-date so that you receive the dividend. Otherwise,
you pay for the dividend priced into the stock but don't
receive the dividend!
Below
I will discuss the effect of dividends on different covered
call writes. First, though, it is helpful to look at dividend
effects on call and put premium.
Dividend
Effects on Call Premium
The
market does not price the dividend into the call
premium, as happens with the stock, because the
call buyer does not get the dividend. Only holders
of stock before the ex-date get dividends. In fact, the
call price should be discounted to some extent for the
dividend, since the underlying can be expected to fall
by the entire amount (or a respectable portion) of the
dividend. Why would a call buyer pay a big premium based
on an impending dividend when (1) the holder of the call
doesn't receive the dividend in the first place, and (2)
the underlying will fall by all or most of the amount
of the dividend? No one would.
However,
since the underlying dividend stock's price will drop
on the ex-date, the prices of the calls on the stock will
drop at that time, also. Note that the fall in the call's
price is directly related to the movement of the stock's
price and the call's strike price, not the dividend.
Cash dividends therefore do not affect option prices directly
but through their effect on the underlying stock price.
Because the stock price is expected to drop by all or
a large part of the amount of the dividend on the ex-date,
high cash dividends imply lower call premiums and higher
put premiums. Here is the general rule:
| Low-volatility
stocks |
+ |
High
dividend |
= |
Low
call premium |
| High-volatility
stocks |
+ |
Low
dividend |
= |
High
call premium |
Covered
call writers should pay attention to this and keep it
in mind. Low-volatility stocks are excellent for covered
writing, but the ones paying high dividends usually won't
offer much premium. To get high premium on a stock with
impending dividend, the stock usually is one with high
volatility - and high volatility plus the expected price
drop on ex-date means the calls written had best be solidly
ITM.
How
much call premium will fall on the ex-date depends on
the amount the stock price drops and where the call's
strike price is in relation to the stock price;
that is, whether the strike is ITM, ATM or OTM. The ITM
call premium can be expected to drop dollar-for-dollar
with the stock. In fact, where the premium includes a
high amount of time value due to a high level of implied
volatility, the drop in premium can be even greater than
dollar-for-dollar. If the ITM call's premium is high enough
to place it on CallWriter's Real Time Lists™ (it
sometimes happens), then the premium's time value component
is relatively high, and implied volatility is high. The
ATM call premium will drop, but generally by an
amount less than the drop in the stock price. In fact,
the drop may not be that great, because as the stock price
falls, the ATM call becomes increasingly out of the money.
The OTM call premium, which is all time value,
frequently will drop the least, although the percentage
of the drop may be the highest. Calls that are deeply
OTM will not be very affected, but for the reasons outlined
in the above Covered Calls and Dividend-Paying Stocks
table, there will rarely be any reason to write OTM calls
on stocks with impending dividends.
Trade
Tip: When writing calls with high premium
on a stock that has announced a dividend, be sure to
check the news. Since the fact of an impending dividend
does not of itself cause call premium returns to soar,
the high premium could indicate an unrelated piece of
news pending. As with any trade, do the requisite analysis.
Dividend
Effects on Put Premium
Dividends
are in effect priced into in-the-money put premiums, since
the underlying stock is expected to fall by roughly the
dividend amount on the ex-date. Puts on stocks about to
pay dividends are more valuable precisely because of the
expected drop in the underlying. All or a good part of
the dividend amount may be priced into puts, since the
market does not like to give money away. Otherwise, traders
would buy puts in huge numbers and collect huge profits
when the stock takes the expected drop. The higher the
cash dividend, therefore, the higher the put premium will
be, and the smaller the dividend, the smaller the put
premium.
For
these reasons, buying puts
does not work. As with calls, the dividend effect on put
premium depends on whether the put is ITM, ATM or OTM.
The dividend should not be fully priced into the OTM put,
and may not be priced in at all. The dividend will be
pretty much fully priced into the ITM put, and perhaps
also the ATM put. Thus in our XYZ example above, I would
expect a price of $1.00 or more for the 20 Put, and I
would expect the price of the ITM put strikes above $20
to include the $1.00 dividend amount, since the stock
is expected to drop by as much as the $1.00 dividend.
For this reason, buying ATM and ITM puts on a stock about
to pay a dividend is usually fruitless. Buying the OTM
put is seldom productive, either, since it is too far
out of the action and may not increase much at all upon
the ex-date drop in the stock.
What
about writing naked puts?
Selling an ATM or ITM put naked in this
situation is a very poor strategy, because you know in
advance that the stock will drop, putting you in jeopardy
of having the stock put to you. And since the drop in
stock price only increases the value of the ATM and ITM
puts, it would cost more to buy back the puts on or after
the ex-date, in order to avoid assignment, than is received
upon selling them. Selling the OTM put naked can
work (in our XYZ example above, selling the 17.50 Put)
if you guess right that the stock will pull back no further
than the $19 price level. In this example, however, I
would not expect the XYZ 17.50 Put to carry very much
premium, precisely because it is never expected to be
"in play."
Dividends
and Covered Calls
Writing
covered calls on stocks with impending dividends is therefore
not really a strategy, because the market doesn't give
dividends away. If you have bought a stock and written
a covered call on it after the dividend announcement,
early assignment does not matter, since you will get the
strike price. But suppose the call writer is not called
out in this situation? Dividend stocks can be fine candidates
for covered calls, but you have to think through the amount
of the call premium and the stock's likely price adjustment
on the ex-date. The table below illustrates some likely
outcomes of writing different strike covered calls on
a stock with an impending dividend.
Example:
Let's consider below the effects of writing different
strike calls on hypothetical XYZ stock. Assume that
XYZ 's board has announced a $1.00 quarterly dividend,
causing the stock to jump from $19 to $20. If you
write covered calls on XYZ, you will pay $20 for the
stock. While few stocks pay a dividend with such a
yield (but see FRO), the dividend makes the discussion
easier to grasp.
| Covered
Calls and Dividend-Paying Stocks |
| OTM
Calls |
|
Expect
dividend stocks to be poor candidates for OTM calls,
because the call premium generally is less than
the dividend. It is seldom possible to profit from
the OTM call.
Example:
Suppose you buy XYZ for $20 and write the 22.50
Call for a 0.60 premium, resulting in a net debit
(your cost basis) of $19.40. The stock can be expected
to pull back as much as $1.00 on the ex-date, to
$19, which is below your cost. You almost certainly
will not be called out and will own the stock. Your
alternatives will be to sell the stock at a loss,
hold it and hope for a price advance, or write more
calls against it. It makes no sense to execute
an OTM covered call trade and face this situation. |
| ATM
Calls |
|
ATM
calls can work on dividend stocks, but only if there
is enough call premium to pay for the stock's drop
on the ex-date. That is, the premium had better
be larger than the impending dividend by an amount
that is sufficient to yield a good return.
Example:
Suppose you buy XYZ for $20 and write the 20 Call
for a 1.50 premium, resulting in a net debit (cost
basis) of $18.50. The stock can be expected to pull
back as much as $1.00 on the ex-date, to $19, which
would still leave a potential 0.50 profit, assuming
you can sell the stock for $19. As with the OTM
call, you very likely will not be called out and
will own the stock. Your alternatives after the
ex-date price drop will be to wait for expiration
and sell the stock, knowing that any sale below
$19 will eat into your return, or to close the trade.
Unwinding the trade, however, will involve cost
to buy back the calls, which again will eat into
your profit. While this ATM trade can work fine,
it offers no particular advantages. It essentially
would be the same trade as buying the stock at $19
and writing the 20 Call for a 0.50 premium. Unless
that trade would make sense, the dividend situation
makes no sense. |
| ITM
Calls |
|
ITM
calls work best on dividend stocks, in my view,
provided there is enough time value to yield an
acceptable return. As shown below, the ITM writer
does not care about the stock's drop in price on
the ex-date, if the ITM calls are written at a strike
that is below the expected stock price on the ex-date
after the pullback.
Example:
Suppose you buy XYZ for $20 and write the 17.5 Call
for a 2.90 premium, resulting in a net debit (cost
basis) of $17.10. We expect the stock to pull back
as much as $1.00 on the ex-date, to $19. The ITM
writer does not care about this, since the writer
expects to be called out in the normal course of
events and sell the stock at the $17.50 strike,
anyway. Thus the ex-date pullback is immaterial
for ITM writes. Since the 17.50 Call was 2.50 in
the money, the real return was only $0.40 (2.90
- 2.40). If this is an acceptable return, the write
makes perfect sense.
Notice
how the ITM writer in this trade could care less
about a pullback to $19, because the strike of the
17.50 Calls sold is well below the $19 to which
the stock is expected to pull back. The ITM writer
should expect the price of the 17.50 Calls to drop
on the ex-date along with the stock, because the
ITM calls will fall dollar-for-dollar (or close
to it) with the stock price. Thus the premium for
the 17.50 Calls can be expected to fall on the ex-date
by the same $1.00 as the stock. |
Obviously,
not every stock carries a 20% dividend yield (annual divided
÷ stock price) like our hypothetical XYZ. For a
stock paying a $0.25 quarterly dividend, the effects after
the dividend announcement and on the ex-date are not nearly
so dramatic as in the XYZ example. But the effect still
will be there. The above discussion assumes that the covered
call writer is a systematic writer,
meaning one who buys stocks for the purpose of writing
calls on them, as opposed to one who writes calls on long-term
portfolio stocks.
The
portfolio writer has
a different perspective, however, since he would not buy
XYZ just to write calls on it but would hold it long term
for the dividend yield (stocks with high dividend yields
are not usually growth stocks). The first and foremost
goal in owning the portfolio stock is not to get called
out, remember. TheOTM calls do make excellent sense
for the portfolio writer, unlike the systematic writer.
Why? For one thing, the stock already is in the portfolio
and was not purchased with the current dividend priced
in. The portfolio writer therefore receives the quarterly
dividend and also rakes in the OTM call premium, yet the
stock price drop on ex-date makes it extremely unlikely
the OTM calls will be exercised. The ATM call might
work just as well for the portfolio writer, and the premium
will be larger than for OTM calls, but there is more risk
of being called out of the stock than with the OTM. The
ITM call is a poor choice for the portfolio writer,
since there is high risk of being called out.
Early
Exercise of Calls
Whoever
owns the stock as of the ex-dividend date receives the
cash dividend, so holders of ITM calls may exercise them
early to capture the cash dividend. That means early exercise
of a call makes sense - and is likely - only if the stock
is expected to pay a dividend prior to expiration date.
Thus if you write calls on an impending dividend stock
whose ex-date is prior to the expiration date , you are
more likely to be assigned an early exercise than normal.
If the time value is gone from the call, early exercise
becomes very likely.
Question:
Can covered calls really be profitably written in a dropping
market?
Answer:
Sure they can, depending on
the market's condition at the time. Your question is akin
to asking whether it is possible to drive when it is snowing.
In a light snow, certainly you can, and we do it all the
time, but not in a blizzard. More information is required
to answer the question. How heavy is the snow, is the
snow sticking to the roads, and is the amount of snow
falling expected to increase or decrease? For that matter,
what condition are the roads in, what vehicle are you
driving, are you experienced in snow, how far are you
driving? You get the picture.
Writing
calls in a dropping market imports a similar analysis.
Markets don't advance or decline at a steady rate. They
are instead characterized by sharp movements, gradual
advances or declines, and consolidation periods when the
market ranges. In a sharply dropping or collapsing market
phase, you should never write covered calls and should
be either closing or rolling down open covered call positions.
Most covered call articles and books state, almost as
a mantra, that you only write covered calls in bull and
perhaps neutral markets, but never bear markets. But I
have learned that simply is not true except in the worst
parts of a decline. There are two factors that make it
possible to write in most bear markets:
| 1. |
Where
the market decline is not precipitous, it is possible
to write in-the-money (ITM) or deeply ITM calls quite
profitably. This is precisely why I devised CallWriter's
deep ITM lists of covered call trades. It is possible
during periods when the market is ranging to write
calls that are at the money (ATM), though one risks
another market breakdown starting while the trades
still is on. |
| 2. |
In
any general market decline there always are stocks
that outperform the market. In some cases stocks will
continue to advance while the market drops. I am referring
here to a gradual market decline, since virtually
every stock falls during a hard market drop. These
out-performing stocks can be written ATM or ITM, and
sometimes even out of the money. |
|