
I
get asked a lot whether writing deeply in-the-money covered
calls is safer than writing at-the-money (ATM) or out-of-the-money
(OTM) calls. There is something to the notion that deeply
in-the-money (ITM) calls are "safer" than ATM
or OTM calls, although I really believe the answer has
more to do with one's trading style than any trading absolutes.
There are three main points to consider here: downside
protection and return, ease of trade management, and the
ease of trade monitoring. Covered calls that are deeply
ITM (meaning, in my view, 10% or more ITM) offer
large premium that provides a lot of downside protection,
and so are "safer" from this standpoint.
I
would say that writing ITM is more conservative
than ATM or OTM writing, but not necessarily safer. Deeply
ITM calls also almost always present a lower return
than ATM or OTM calls; these days substantially less.
In fact, as I write this, it is difficult to find a deeply
ITM call that is paying more than 5% with 30 days left
until expiration, and even a 5% return can be hard to
find at the 30-day mark. The tradeoff for the large downside
protection is a much lower return. But I have to emphasize
this: writing ITM is NOT an excuse for lazy writing, for
not doing the requisite analysis. The wrong stock can
hand you a stunning loss even if written 20% or more ITM.
With discipline and proper trade selection, it is not
necessary to write ITM to make consistent returns. It
is not a bad place for newer traders to start, however,
and look for larger returns as experience accumulates.
Another
point seldom discussed in the context of ITM call writing
is the greater ease of trade management.
The higher level of downside protection with deeply ITM
calls simply usually allows the trader more time for reflection
and action if the stock pulls back. For an illustration
of this point, suppose two traders were looking at hypothetical
stock BUMM, which is at $20:
Trader
Vic writes the 20 Call for $1.00 (5%
potential return, $19.00 breakeven);
Trader
Ric writes the 17.5 Call for $3.15
(3.25% potential return, $16.85 breakeven)
Neither
play is necessarily better at the time of trade entry.
Ric is trading more downside protection for a much lower
return. Suppose the stock pulls back to $18.50. The stock
is well below Vic's $19 breakeven, so he's sweating a
bit. He had better be looking at a potential roll down
to the 17.5 Call, if doing so would improve his position,
but the last chance for a helpful roll may have passed
(Vic should have been looking at a possible roll down
before the stock ever hit his breakeven. If the stock
continues to drop, Vic has to decide whether to ride out
the pullback or take the loss. But the stock is well above
Ric's breakeven point - he'll watch the stock a little
more closely now and if the stock drops much more, will
begin to look at a possible roll down to the 15 Call.
As this example turned out, it was clearly better to have
written the ITM 17.5 Call, but there is no way to be sure
of that on trade entry.
Safer?
I would say that writing ITM is more conservative
than ATM or OTM writing, but not necessarily safer. Deeply
ITM calls also almost always present a lower return than
ATM or OTM calls; these days substantially less. In fact,
as I write this, it is difficult to find a deeply ITM
call that is paying more than 5% with 30 days left until
expiration, and even a 5% return can be hard to find at
the 30-day mark. The tradeoff for the large downside protection
is a much lower return. But I have to emphasize this:
writing ITM is NOT an excuse for lazy writing, for not
doing the requisite analysis. The wrong stock can hand
you a stunning loss even if written 20% or more ITM.
With discipline and proper trade selection, it is not
necessary to write ITM to make consistent returns. It
is not a bad place for newer traders to start, however,
and look for larger returns as experience accumulates.
In
my view, the important thing is to trade in accordance
with your personality. For example, some
people like to trade very actively: they watch their trades
all the time and delight in looking for trades and modifying
trades - closing them early, rolling the calls and such.
(It helps in this trading style if you are close to a
computer during the day and are able to watch trades all
the time and react quickly to moves.) A less active trader
might not be in a position, or might not care, to watch
the trades constantly and may just want to run the trade,
collect the premium and look for a new trade when called
out. ITM calls make it easier to check on trades only
once a day, and some writers don't even check them daily.
Sure, any stock can pull back hard without real warning,
but when stable, large-cap stocks are being written, there
is less reason for concern. And there are call writers
who do very well writing ITM, occasionally closing the
trade early when it appears advantageous. They may not
make the highest returns of all call writers, but many
of them argue that the peace of mind is well worth it
- they generally will have more reaction room than ATM
and OTM writers and are willing to trade that for lower
returns.
I
believe, based on experience, that ATM and especially
OTM covered call trades have to be watched a little more
closely than those ITM. It is not a right or wrong issue,
but a decision to be made on mature reflection. Do what
is right for you.
Writing
Calls on ETFs
Question:
I've heard that the safest stocks on which to write
covered calls are the ETFs, such as the Diamonds and QQQQ.
Would you agree or disagree with that statement?
Answer:
The two ETFs you mention are Exchange Traded Funds
(ETFs), which are investment structures that pool the
assets of their investors and invest the funds in stock
market or similar indices. There are also ETFs that are
geared to other markets and designed to produce current
income or capital appreciation, such as municipal bond
funds. But when most people refer to ETFs, they mean the
Index ETFs. There are many of them, but the most well
known are the Spiders (SPDR 500; Symbol
SPY; comprised of the S&P 500 index stocks), the Cubes
(Nasdaq 100 Trust Series I; Symbol QQQQ; comprised of
the Nasdaq 100 stocks), and the Diamonds
(Diamonds Trust Series I; Symbol DIA; comprised of Dow
Jones Industrial Average stocks).
ETFs
are also known as tracking stocks, since the ETF shares
that are publicly traded closely track the fortunes of
the underlying index. But ETF stocks can be volatile,
especially those that track smaller indices. In fact,
the smaller the index, the more potential it has to be
volatile, due to the modern phenomenon of sector
rotation, the tendency of an industry group or
even a sector to sell off when one of its leading bellwether
stocks is hit. If the industry or sector underlying an
ETF goes into rotation, it will feel pretty darn volatile.
Although the major indices have not been particularly
volatile in the last year or so, when they move, they
can really move - just like any other stock. Moreover,
we are seeing in the last year an amplified tendency for
the markets to split, as when the S&P 500 is up and
the Nasdaq is down. In a market that tends to split, which
ETF should you be in at any given time, exactly?
Finally,
the covered call returns offered by ETFs are abysmal.
Actually, at any time you can pretty much figure that
returns on ETF covered calls will be about half of the
return offered by trades on CallWriter's deep in the money
lists, which are themselves some of our lower returns.
This raises the question of whether it is really safer
to write ETF stocks for returns that are well under half
the returns one could expect from writing at-the-money
calls on corporate stocks. I don't think so, but we offer
ETF lists for CallWriter members, since some of our members
prefer them. I believe that with proper trade selection,
it is possible to get consistent returns that are much
higher than are obtainable from writing ETFs.
For
more information about them, visit ETFConnect,
a site devoted solely to the world of ETFs.
|