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The
CallWriter approach is based
upon buying stocks and writing covered calls on them,
of course. CallWriter
offers the Real
Time Lists™, which are our proprietary
lists of the highest-returning covered calls, and the
high returns they feature are generated by the potential
volatility of the underlying stock. That is, when the
market expects imminent movement in a stock, the options
command higher prices. There are exceptions (for example,
USG was on our lists for months due to concerns about
settlement of its asbestos litigation), "imminent"
usually means one day to six weeks. Our covered call lists
change during the day and change significantly over a
week; they change even more over the course of a month.
This is because the implied volatility of the stocks themselves
will change over time.
Our
strategy is to write covered calls on good stocks, and
pocket the premium for consistent 3% to 5% monthly returns.
But - our Real Time Lists™ also
can be used for call spreads, which essentially are another
type of covered call. We like covered calls because they
provide real downside protection. While they will rarely
provide the kind of returns that call spreads do, they
don't offer as much risk as call spreads can.
It
also is possible to cover short call options by buying
a long term LEAPS call. For example, consider creating
a LEAPS position on hypothetical stock BUMM, trading at
$33. You buy the LEAPS 40C, which has 9 months left until
expiration. You could then sell the BUMM 35 call for every
single one of the 9 months remaining on the LEAPS call,
and the sale of the 35C would be covered by owning the
BUMM LEAPS 40 call. The 35C and LEAPS 40C actually creates
a diagonal $5.00 calendar spread (bear call spread). In
other words, you would be short the 35C and long the LEAPS
40C. This strategy essentially bets that the stock price
at expiration of the short call each month will not be
above the 35C's strike price.
Example:
Let’s suppose you got $1.75 for the 35
call and paid $5.50 for the LEAPS 40 call with 9 months
left until expiration. If you could get $1.75/month
for selling the 35C, you would pull in $15.75 in total
premium (1.75 x 9), but have paid only $5.50 for the
LEAPS. Nice profit! Remember that this trade creates
a $5.00 spread, though. If you paid a little more, say
$9.00, for the LEAPS 40C, you would make less profit
but eliminate the $5.00 spread risk.
Could
this calendar spread setup lose? It could, of
course. Here are the possibilities, based on the stock’s
price and volatility over the life of the LEAPS call purchased:
1.
Stock stays around $35. You just keep selling
the 35C every month against the LEAPS. The premium will
be leaner or fatter, depending on the market’s view
of the stock’s volatility.
2.
Stock goes to $40. You sell the 40C instead against
the LEAPS. (You wouldn’t sell the 35C, because it
is in the money, and you will be called out of the 35
for sure, which would take back some or all of the $5.00+
premium, so you’re better off just selling the 40)
NOTE:
If in a particular month you sold the 35C against the
LEAPS 40C and the stock goes to $40 or higher at expiration,
you could realize a loss. Since the total spread is
$5.00 and $1.75 in premium was received for the 35C,
a net spread of $3.25 was created, which is the maximum
amount you could lose on that month's spread.
3.
Stock rises sharply above $40. Keep selling calls
at or close to the money, which is where the best premium
is. Selling a call each month with a strike above $40
changes the strategy and creates a bull call spread. For
example, when the stock is at $48 you sell the 50C against
the the LEAPS 40C. If the stock closes over $50 at expiration,
you will be called out of the 50C and receive $50 for
the stock, but the LEAPS 40C gives you the right to buy
it at $40, pocketing a $10 profit, PLUS the premium you
got for selling the 50C. (Or just sell the LEAPS, which
will go up in value as it gets further in the money.)
4.
Stock price drops. The risk in long options is
that the stock price’s movement puts the option
further and further out of the money, making it less and
less valuable.
5.
Stock volatility drops. High option premium implies
volatility in the underlying stock. And no stock maintains
a continually high level of volatility. Here’s the
rub: as the stock’s anticipated volatility falls
over time – and it will - you might not get anything
close to $1.75 for selling the 35C every month.
Before
buying an out-of-the-money LEAPS call, you should be bullish
on the stock, because a decline in the underlying stock
will decrease the LEAPS’ value, and make it almost
worthless if the stock drops enough. If you’re buying
a LEAPS put, you should be bearish on the underlying stock.
Buying the LEAPS usually will be far cheaper than buying
the stock, and options provide relatively cheap leverage
over the underlying shares. But remember that the stock
doesn’t expire.
To
work the above strategy (diagonal calendar spreads) profitably,
you have to be able to correctly discern a stock’s
direction over the period until expiration of the long
call. Obviously, the strategy works better in an uptrending
market, just as put spreads would work better in a declining
market. This is a poor strategy for a channeling stock
or in a channeling market.
You
also don’t have to buy a LEAPS call: you can buy
an ordinary call option several months out. The call spread
strategy only works if the distant option is cheap relative
to the near option. If for example you create a 6-month
time spread (sell the current 40C, buy a 40C six months
out) and the price of the distant option is 6 times the
price of the current option, there is no way to profit.
But if the distant option is 2.5 or 3 times the current
option’s cost, then a profit potential exists, because
you can sell the current option 6 times during the life
of the distant option.

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Disclaimer
We
are not brokers, investment advisers or securities
analysts and do not recommend the purchase,
sale or holding of any security. Your use
of any information or strategy appearing in
this newsletter or on CallWriter.com is solely
at your own risk. We urge our newsletter subscribers
and CallWriter.com website members to do all
requisite and analysis and properly plan each
trade prior to making the trade and to manage
each trade effectively. Covered call and other
potential trades discussed in this newsletter
or on CallWriter.com do not constitute trading
recommendations by CallWriter or any other
person and are presented by solely for informational
and educational purposes. |
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