|
So
this is how they work...
Both
the call and put must have the same expiration. It is
also possible to write a straddle or strangle,
but if you do that, both positions are naked... not for
the faint of heart! Here is how each looks:
|
Straddle: |
Stock |
$20.00 |
|
Strangle: |
Stock |
$20.00 |
|
| |
CALL |
AUG
20 |
Cost:
$1.10 |
|
CALL |
AUG
22.50 |
Cost:
$0.75 |
| |
PUT |
AUG
20 |
Cost:
$1.05 |
|
PUT |
AUG
17.50 |
Cost:
$0.70 |
|
You
profit from a straddle or strangle when - and only if
- the stock moves enough to put the position in the money.
For example, when the stock is $20, you buy the 20 Call
for $1.10 and the 20 Put for $1.05, both of which are
conveniently at the money. Remember, this is not a covered
position, so your only cash outlay is $2.15 to buy the
call and put to establish the straddle. Suppose that prior
to expiration the stock gaps to $26, what happens? The
answer is that you are in luck, cowboy! The 20 Call is
now in the money $6 and the premium for it now will be
that much or more, so you can sell the call for a profit
of at least $5. What about the 20 Put? Well, the gap up
gutted the put, didn't it? Nobody wants to put stock at
$20 when it brings $26 on the open market. Therefore,
the value of the 20 Put has fallen. The $1.05 premium
you paid for the put now is about $0.40, and you stick
another $0.65 profit in your jeans when you buy back the
20 Put. This is a total profit of at least $5.65, more
than 2.5 times your original $2.15 investment. The strangle
would requires that the stock move more to make the position
profitable, but costs less to establish, since both options
are out of the money. Yo' money, yo' choice. If you get
a small move or no move before expiration, you're out
of luck on the straddle or strangle.
This
writer then went on to say that, if one side of the straddle
made you money, then duuuhhhh, wouldn't it have been smarter
to just have taken that side? That is impeccable logic,
except how would you (could you) have known which side
to buy or write? Ouiji board? Coin flip? Call Martha Stewart?
The
Magic of the HVE!
The
writer had a point, though. Writing a straddle or strangle
is dangerous if you don't have an edge. And here is the
edge: the high-volatility event (HVE), such
as FDA approval hearings and resolution of major lawsuits
and FTC actions. HVEs are too dangerous for you to take
one side of them, but perfect for the straddle or strangle.
Taking one side is to buy or write either call or put
options, but not both. The reason one-sided positions
are dangerous is that you cannot know which way the HVE
will be resolved and thus cannot know which way the stock
will move. For example, the stock can gap up or down hard
depending on whether the FDA approves the drug application
or not. In fact, when the FDA disapproves a drug application,
the stock typically gaps down dramatically and trading
will be halted in the stock. Then when trading resumes
the next day, it can open quite down. Put differently,
taking one side of a HVE is guessing - - save it for Vegas.
In fact, a covered write is the single most dangerous
position you can take on a HVE, so don't ever write a
covered call or covered put on one.
Which
brings us to how you make money on a promising HVE. The
fact that a HVE is impending results in volatility in
the stock. Volatility always presents a chance to make
money. And the HVE always presents a textbook case of
volatility. If you want to get in on HVEs with a chance
to make a profit no matter how the event resolves, instead
or buying or writing one side of the event, you have to
create a straddle or strangle. A large gap either way
makes you money on a straddle or strangle. However, you
lose money on a straddle or strangle if the HVE does not
occur, is inconclusive or if the stock simply doesn't
gap enough. The more significant the event, the greater
the potential volatility.
According
to a noted options expert, the single best HVE play of
all (statistically speaking, based upon research over
several years) is the FDA hearing. The date of an FDA
hearing is known, or findable, these hearings are only
infrequently postponed and are announced in press releases
by the companies undergoing the hearings. The FDA events
provide the greatest volatility and, historically, the
largest price moves of all HVEs. Obviously, the more significant
the drug or medical device application is to the company's
fortunes, the bigger the pop from the FDA's decision.
This is why there frequently isn't a huge movement when
the company has many successful products on the market
and has revenues in the billions. There also won't be
a huge movement if the hearing relates to a modification
of an existing drug or medical device, only for those
relating to new applications. Finally, you don't want
to set up the straddle or strangle more than 3 trading
days prior to the hearing. Don't tie up your money any
longer than necessary.
You
may be wondering how to find these FDA events, since the
FDA website (www.fda.gov) does not seem have a calendar
of upcoming hearings for new drug and new medical device
applications. Here's how we do it: we simply keep an eye
on CallWriter's Real Time Lists - which present the highest-returning
call options. These lists are loaded with potentially
volatile stocks. After all, these options hit the Real
Time Lists because of high premiums,
and high premiums imply high volatility. Drug, biotech
and medical device stocks with impending FDA hearings
tend to show up on one or more of these lists a few days
before the hearing date. We simply check news on such
stocks appearing on the lists looking for confirmation
that an important hearing is upcoming in a few days..
Are there other ways to find companies with impending
FDA hearings? There probably are many ways, but the key
to making money is volatility, not an upcoming hearing.
They are called HighVolatility Events, remember?
The high volatility implied by the (relatively) high call
premiums is what puts them on the Real
Time Lists ... so what better place to
look?

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