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My
six-year-old grandson likes to dip celery stocks in a
rich cheesy dip. Don't get me wrong - he won't eat the
celery, but he sure likes to lick the dip off it. My philosophy
on writing covered calls is remarkably similar. I am not
a stock investor and view the stock as no more than a
means to getting the return from selling calls. The stock
is my celery stick, and ... well never mind, you get the
picture.
Never
forget that the stock is, after all, where all the risk
is in the covered call trade. The stock is the "bitey"
end of the trade. The less time you are in the trade,
the less opportunity the stock has to bite you. A few
hard facts figure into my trading philosophy:
| 1. |
This is my term for the fact that the further out
in time the call writer goes, the smaller the return
gets. That is, the further out in time the call,
the less premium you get per month. If for example
you can get $1.00 for selling the front month (current
expiration month), you won't get $4.00 for selling
the same strike call four months out. In fact, you
might not even get $2.00 for it. Thus the further
out in time you sell, the more the return per month
shrinks. Consider the following example on the Apple
Computer (AAPL) 65 Calls and LEAPS Call in December
2004, when AAPL was trading at $65:
| |
JAN
65 |
FEB
65 |
APR
65 |
JUL
65 |
JAN
'06 65 |
Premium |
2.70 |
4.10 |
6.10 |
7.80 |
11.00 |
Trade
Duration* |
1
mo. |
2
mos. |
4
mos. |
7
mos. |
12
mos. |
Total
Return |
4.15% |
6.31% |
9.38% |
12% |
16.92% |
Return
per Month |
4.15% |
3.15% |
2.34% |
1.7% |
1.41% |
* Note that the time periods above are rounded to
months for illustration purposes.
Notice
how the return per month drops precipitously after
the first four months. The reason is obvious: the
market expects volatility in the stock short term,
based on pending news or an event. The market is
willing to pay more for AAPL options in the short
term, but not over the long term. For all stocks,
there is a heavy implied volatility skew in favor
of the short-term options, because the short term
is where the action will be, based on the pending
news or event that is driving the premium so high.
If
your goal is to maximize returns (and it should
be the goal), then I fail to see how writing further
out in time helps the trader realize it. The stock
poses a risk every instant you are in the trade.
Money has a time value, and taking a smaller return
never adds up. In the above example, selling the
JAN 2006 LEAPS call brings in $11.00 in premium,
an almost 17% return for a 12-month trade. But getting
4% a month on the same trading capital for those
12 months would bring in a 48% return.
Which
makes more sense to you? |
| 2. |
You should be aware that stock options lose the
greatest percentage of their time value in the last
30 days before expiration. Time is said to be on
the option seller's side, and the reason is that
the decay in time value works in the seller's favor.
Every day brings the option seller closer to expiration,
when the trade ends and his profits are realized.
Not only that, but decay in time value (along with
collapse in IV) makes it possible many times to
close the trade early with an acceptable profit.
Time on the other hand is the option buyer's enemy,
because every day robs a little of the time value
from his long options.
One
of the greatest benefits of writing covered calls
is to collect a fat premium for a call that expires
in 30 days or less. When expiration day comes, it
usually means that the covered call writer's profit
is locked in and the trade is terminated when the
writer is called out of the stock. Writing calls
further out in time takes away this element of swift
time decay from your trading. It picks your pocket.
There is no economic advantage for the covered
call writer to be in a trade any longer than necessary
to capture the return sought. |
|
3. |
As I pointed out above, the stock is the sharp end
of the covered call trade and where all the risk
is. The longer you are in a trade, the longer the
stock has in which to bite you. The further out
you write, the more you have to pay attention to
the intermediate trend of the stock and the overall
market. And as s tough as it is to forecast a stock's
price over the next few weeks, it is no easier to
forecast it over many months! The longer the time
horizon, the harder it is to determine direction.
While
my crystal ball is no better than yours, I feel
much more confident about being able to predict
the stock's direction over the next 2 - 4 weeks
than two to four months. And maybe that is the answer
- I do it because I'm more confident in my ability
to predict winners over the short term. |
All
trading is, at the end of the day, about turning your
money. Notice I said trading, not investing, which is
buying stocks for the long term and holding for price
appreciation. By no means do I disparage long-term investing,
I just don't do it. It is simply true that all things
being equal, the faster you turn your money, the greater
the return. Ask any banker! Turn equals return.
Many
articles and books on writing covered calls exhort readers
to sell calls many months out, sometimes even to sell
LEAPS calls. And while I don't knock the practice, premium
compression means that the further out in time you write,
the smaller the return per month. The above table doesn't
lie. That is how premium compression works. The only justification
for writing far out in time that I am aware of is to collect
a huge premium for the far-out calls and look for a chance
to unwind the trade early for a fat return due to time
decay or collapse in implied volatility. In other words,
even though the trader writes a call, say, seven months
out, the trade might can be closed profitably in a month
or two. This can be a very smart strategy, and when it
works well the trader is turning his or her money instead
of staying in longer-term trades. Remember, though, that
premium compression works both ways. The calls far out
in time never get high enough to offer returns comparable
to nearer-term calls, as the above table illustrates.
This also means that when the expected news or event occurs
and causes the IV and premium in the nearer-term calls
to drop, the premium in the calls further out does not
drop correspondingly because they were never nearly as
high. This makes it tougher to profitably unwind the trade
early.
Question:
What
is the difference between a covered call and a bull call
spread?
Answer:
They are very different strategies. The covered call trade
is a conservative position designed to produce a small
income while conferring a bit of downside protection against
a stock slide. It is a neutral to bullish
trade that wins if the stock goes up a lot, goes up a
little, holds its price or even goes down a little. That
is, the covered call wins in a lot of different scenarios.
The covered call is not a spread: it is created by writing
call options on stock you already own or buy for that
purpose.
Covered
call = Buy stock + sell calls
The
debit spread (bull call spread) is a bullish trade
that creates a debit upon entry. The bull call spread
is created by buying a call option on a stock and selling
a different call option with a higher strike price on
the same stock. The stock has to affirmatively move up
in order for the spread to win. It must move ABOVE the
trade's breakeven point in order to win, and must close
above the higher (short) strike call in order to generate
maximum profit. The bull call spread exposes you to a
loss if the stock does not move enough and do it on time.
You must be a decent market timer to consistently profit
from them, since you have to be right about the stock's
direction and it has to move on time. However, it caps
your profit.
Bull
call spread = Buy lower-strike call
+ sell higher-strike call
The
spread caps your return, however. In order to minimize
a possible loss, the bull call spread writer sells a higher
strike call. Say the stock is at $19 and you create a
20c/25c spread by buying the 20 Call and selling the 25
Call. The 25 call brings in premium (though less than
the cost of the 20 Call) and lowers the trade's debit
compared to simply buying the 20 Call. However, selling
the 25 Call caps your profit. If the stock closes at $26,
you would make the $5.00 spread minus the trade's net
debit. If you're a good enough market timer to consistently
make money from bull call spreads, it may make more sense
to buy the calls.

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Disclaimer
We
are not brokers, investment advisers or securities
analysts and do not recommend the purchase,
sale or holding of any security. Your use
of any information or strategy appearing in
this newsletter or on CallWriter.com is solely
at your own risk. We urge our newsletter subscribers
and CallWriter.com website members to do all
requisite and analysis and properly plan each
trade prior to making the trade and to manage
each trade effectively. Covered call and other
potential trades discussed in this newsletter
or on CallWriter.com do not constitute trading
recommendations by CallWriter or any other
person and are presented by solely for informational
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