| Rolling
Calls with our Covered Call Calculator
Rolling
the calls in a covered call trade
means to buy back the short calls
and sell calls with a different strike
price. Rolling calls is a trade management
technique used to increase return
when the stock advances or ameliorate
a loss when it declines (or actually
snatch a profit out of a declining
stock). We invented the Trade
Management Calculator™
to manage the covered call trade all
through its life, from open to close,
including rolls.
Our
TM calculator has 4 rows for data
entry and calculation results, explained
below:
|
1st
Row |
Original
trade prices and basis (or
adjusted numbers after a
roll) |
| 2nd
Row |
Immediate
results of closing the position
(current prices) |
| 3rd
Row |
Potential
results of a rollover |
| 4th
Row |
Potential
results of an alternative
rollover |
| |
Grapic
explanation of calculator
rows |
|
The
first thing upon executing the trade,
enter the stock and option symbols
and the actual trade numbers into
the calculator's 1st row based on
the fill gotten on the trade.
The
2nd Row shows you the immediate profit
or loss in closing out the position
and selling the stock. Simply click
the Update [U]
button on the second row to update
prices and automatically calculate
the result of unwinding the trade.
If you are contemplating a roll of
the short calls, you must update the
second row, because the 3rd and 4th
Rows of the calculator work from the
2nd Row's data in order to compute
the rollover results. I frequently
go through my calculator positions
and check each one by hitting the
2nd Row update button to see if the
trade is showing me a profitable close.
Note:
When I open a trade, I normally
enter the option symbol in the 3rd
Row for the strike immediately
below the one written, and in the
4th Row enter the
option symbol for the strike immediately
above.
The
3rd Row is a possible
rollover (up or down), and the 4th
Row is another possible rollover
(up or down), which allows you to
look at two different roll possibilities
at once. The 3rd and 4th Row calculations
assume that the stock price (Current
Price in the 2nd Row) doesn't change
by expiration and that either:
| (a) |
An
OTM or ATM call expires worthless
and you sell the stock to get
the flat return, |
| |
OR |
| (b) |
You
are assigned (called out) of an
ITM call and receive the if-called
return |
These
assumptions are necessary, since we
can never know where the stock price
will be at expiration. Note that the
3rd and 4th Rows work off the numbers
in the 1st and 2nd rows in making
the roll calculations. The return
calculations in the 3rd and 4th Rows
work include any increase (or decrease,
as the case may be) in stock price,
thus if the stock falls after the
roll, this part of the roll return
will evaporate.
Unless
and until you execute a subsequent
roll into a different call, the 1st
Row [$39.95 Cost Basis] remains the
baseline for the trade, and the 2nd
row establishes the value of the position
at any point in time. For more information,
view our
sample calculator with tutorial.
Initial
Roll Example
Let's
work through an example using hypothetical
stock XYZ. Assume that we've bought
XYZ for $42.50 and written
the 45 Call on it for a $2.55
premium. We would enter these figures,
along with the stock and option symbols,
into the calculator's 1st Row. Your
Cost Basis in the stock (net debit
and breakeven) after running the trade
is $39.95, which also is shown
in the calculator's 1st Row.
Now,
assume that a week later the stock's
price goes up to $46.25 and you are
considering a roll up to the 47.50
call (that is, buying back the 45
Call and selling the 47.50 Call).
It will cost $4 to buy back
the 45 Call, and you'll get $2.50
for writing the $47.50 call.
Rolling
up to the 47.50 Call will increase
the Cost Basis to $41.45, as
shown in the calculator's 3rd Row.
Once we roll into a new call, our
basis in the stock is adjusted, due
to buying back the original call and
selling the new call - rolling will
always change our basis. Put differently,
we gained $1.05 in
net premium on the roll (2.55 original
premium + 2.50 for selling the new
call, minus 4.00 cost to buy back
the original call).
The
3rd row shows us a potential return
on the roll of $4.80
and $6.05 if we are
called out of the stock at the higher
47.5C strike, if the stock price does
not change before expiration. Again,
note that much of this potential return
comes from the stock's price advance
from $42.50 to $46.25, because we
will only pick up a net of $1.05 on
the roll. However, should the stock
fall after we roll up, we would be
protected down to our new cost basis
of $41.45.
You
can see in the following illustration
how the calculator's 3rd Row works
off of the data in the 1st and 2nd
Rows and incorporates assumptions
(a) and (b) explained above:
Calculator
Position 1

Note:
You could close this trade right
away for a return of $2.30
(5.4%). In making a decision
to modify a position, always do
a "gut check" to decide
if you would prefer to stick this
profit in your jeans or go for a
yet higher return by rolling up
- which, in order to work, requires
that the stock at the very least
hold its new price through expiration.
It
appears profitable in this example
to roll up to the 47.C, because even
though it will increase our cost basis
in the trade, we're setting ourselves
up for a substantial increase in the
return... if the stock price holds.
But if the stock price comes back
down, we will simply have written
a price spike and we will be whipsawed.
But
let's say we are confident in the
stock, so let's assume we effect the
roll up to the 47.50 Call at the prices
shown in the 3rd Row. We have now
modified the trade and now have a
higher cost basis of $41.45 and stand
to make a much larger return. The
3rd Row of the calculator presents
the new flat and if-called returns
for the roll in the 3rd row, and now
governs our return calculations.
Of
course, should we decide to close
the trade or modify it again, the
calculator will not work off the new
3rd Row numbers. The 3rd row shows
a potential roll, but we have actually
done that roll. How do we adjust the
calculator to show the new price dynamics?
After
the Roll: Modifying the Calculator
Data
The
1st and 2nd Rows of the calculator
no longer accurately reflect our position,
and we cannot use it to look at unwinding
the trade, or to evaluate another
roll. To do this, we must either revise
this position or (better yet) enter
a new position in the calculator that
incorporates the new position numbers.
We
bought the stock for $42.50 and wrote
the 45C for $2.55 in premium. Now
we have increased our cost basis,
but also our net premium and potential
profit.
To
recap, our potential profit on the
roll uncalled is $4.80, and the potential
return assigned is $6.05. As noted
above, these numbers include the $3.75
appreciation in stock from $42.50
to $46.25. Adding this $3.75 in additional
stock value to the $1.05 in net premium
on the roll gives us the $4.80 return.
If called at $47.50 (the new call
strike), we will pick up an additional
$1.50 - the difference between the
current $46.25 stock price and the
47.5C strike, which produces the $6.05
return if assigned (4.80 + 1.25).
The
solution is simple and elegant: we
open a new calculator position (it
has memory for 24 separate positions)
for the new, adjusted position. To
do this, check any of the 24 position
tickboxes on the calculator that are
not being used. We merely enter the
following five pieces of data from
the original calculator position into
the 1st row of a new calculator field
(Calculator Position 2),
like so:
| Data
to be Entered in 1st Row
of Calculator Position
2 |
|
Stock
Symbol |
XYZ |
| Stock
Price |
Stock
price at the time of the
original roll - $46.25 |
| Option
Code |
Option
symbol for the strike to
which we are rolling:
(XYZKW for the 47.50 call
strike) |
| Strike
Price |
Strike
price of call to which we
are rolling - 47.50 |
| Premium |
Net
premium - $4.80
(Orig. Premium + New Premium
+ Stock Rise) - Buyback
Cost |
|
In
other words, we enter the new call
symbol and strike, and the stock's
price at the time of the roll, whioh
includes an unrealized profit. We
also enter the new $4.80
"premium" amount, which
is the $1.05 sum of the net call transactions
to date and the $3.75 of unrealized
profit in the stock.
The
net of the option buys and sells
from the !st, 2nd and 3rd Rows of
the calculator is $1.05, which includes
the 2.55 original premium, 4.00
buyback cost and 2.50 roll premium.
If
it seems complicated, it really isn't.
Here is a more detailed example of
how how to calculate the net premium
(for the Premium field) in Calculator
Position 2 based upon our original
roll:
| Calculating
the Net Premium on a Roll |
|
Original
Premium |
+
2.55 |
| Premium
on Roll |
+
2.50 |
| Increase
in Stock Value |
+
3.75($46.25
price on roll - $42.50 stock
cost) |
| Cost
to Buy Back Calls |
-
4.00 |
|
Net
Premium on Roll |
+
4.80 (enter
this amount as premium in
Position 2) |
|
All
these numbers are contained in the
original calculator position for the
trade. Don't complicate this simple
computation in your mind; its only
purpose is to reflect your newly-adjusted
cost basis resulting from the original
roll and to take into account the
increase in the stock's value and
the net premium received on the roll.
What
if we were instead rolling out on
a flat stock price or rolling down
on a decreased stock price? We would
do exactly the same, but the net premium
on the roll and the change in stock
price might be a negative number.
Here
is how Calculator Position 2 for the
XYZ trade would look after the original
roll and making the simple net premium
computation:
Calculator
Position 2
The
return percentages are slightly
off - lower - than actual returns
would be, because we are presenting
the end result of several chains of
calculations in the 1st row of Calculator
Position 2 as if they were original
trade entry numbers. But the dollar
amounts of the returns are accurate.
Obviously,
the trade has increased the Cost Basis
(breakeven) from $39.95 to $41.45,
which is an increase in trade risk.
The potential returns shown include
the $3.75 increase in the stock price
from $42.50 to $46.25, thus realizing
the $4.80 flat return or $6.05 if-called
return depends on the stock's price
at expiration.
Once
these numbers have been entered into
the 1st row of Calculator Position
2, we can look at an unwinding of
the trade or a subsequent roll at
any time.
Rolling
calls in covered call trades is not
difficult to accomplish, and the returns
are easy to calculate and keep up
with. Rolling calls down is the same
process, using dropping stock prices
instead. Our CallWriter members site
contains extensive tutorials on using
our Trade Management Calculator™,
including rolls up and down.
Note:
Always keep in mind that the
returns shown in the Trade Management
Calculator are potential returns
only, because results always depend
on prices realized upon trade conclusion.
|